Player Prop Picks for Rockies vs Cardinals – 8/11/2025

Colorado Rockies

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St. Louis Cardinals

On August 11, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Colorado Rockies at Busch Stadium for the first game of their series. Both teams find themselves struggling this season, with the Cardinals holding a record of 60-59, placing them in the middle of the pack, while the Rockies languish at 30-87, one of the worst records in baseball. Despite their struggles, the Cardinals are significant favorites in this matchup, with a moneyline of -220.

St. Louis is projected to start Miles Mikolas, who has had an inconsistent season with a 6-9 record and an ERA of 5.11. His performance has been underwhelming, as he ranks as the 194th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced metrics. However, Mikolas may find some comfort in facing a Rockies lineup that strikes out frequently, ranking 2nd in MLB for strikeouts. This matchup could play to Mikolas’s advantage, as he is a low-strikeout pitcher, sitting at a 16.0 K% this year.

On the other side, Colorado will send Anthony Molina to the mound. Molina has struggled significantly, with a 0-1 record and a dreadful 9.22 ERA. His projections suggest he may allow 3.1 earned runs over approximately 4.9 innings, which could be problematic against a Cardinals offense that, while average overall, ranks 13th in team batting average.

In their last outing, the Rockies faced a tough opponent and fell short, continuing a dismal trend this season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have an implied team total of 5.02 runs for this game, indicating confidence in their ability to capitalize on Molina’s struggles. With the Rockies’ bullpen also ranking 24th in MLB, the Cardinals could have ample opportunities to score.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Anthony Molina – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Molina to throw 83 pitches today (6th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Brenton Doyle is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Hunter Goodman pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Miles Mikolas’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (55.1% compared to 49% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under Total Bases
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jordan Walker, Thomas Saggese, Nolan Gorman).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 78 games (+8.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 58 away games (+16.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Mickey Moniak has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.65 Units / 44% ROI)