Player Prop Picks for Rockies vs Cardinals – 8/11/2025

Colorado Rockies

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St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals face off against the Colorado Rockies on August 11, 2025, in the first game of their series at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals, currently sitting at 60-59, are looking to capitalize on a Rockies team that has struggled mightily this season, holding a dismal record of 30-87. In their last outing, the Cardinals edged out the Rockies with a close 3-2 victory, while Colorado’s previous game ended in a lopsided 13-6 loss.

Miles Mikolas is projected to take the mound for St. Louis. Despite being ranked as the 194th best starting pitcher in MLB, Mikolas has been reliable in terms of innings pitched, averaging 5.4 innings per start. However, his recent performance has raised concerns, as he was hit hard in his last start on August 5, allowing five earned runs over just three innings. He will face a Rockies offense that ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts, which could play to his advantage as he is a low-strikeout pitcher.

On the other hand, Chase Dollander is expected to start for Colorado. With a 2-9 record and an ERA of 6.68, Dollander has struggled throughout the season. The projections suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP of 4.92 indicates he could perform better moving forward. Nonetheless, his recent outings have been concerning, including a start on July 6 where he allowed three earned runs in just four innings.

The Cardinals’ offense ranks 19th in MLB, which is average, while the Rockies sit at 25th, indicating a significant gap in offensive production. With the Cardinals favored at a moneyline of -210 and an implied team total of 4.99 runs, they appear to have the edge in this matchup.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Chase Dollander – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chase Dollander to throw 85 pitches today (8th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Brenton Doyle is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Hunter Goodman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Miles Mikolas’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (55.1% compared to 49% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese, Pedro Pages).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 78 games (+8.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 58 away games (+16.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+130/-170)
  Ivan Herrera has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.55 Units / 109% ROI)