Player Prop Picks for Pirates vs Reds – 9/21/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates prepare for their matchup on September 21, 2024, both teams find themselves out of contention, but still battling for pride in the National League Central. The Reds hold a slight edge in the standings with a 75-80 record, compared to the Pirates’ 72-82, but both teams are enduring below-average seasons. The Reds are coming off a solid victory against the Pirates in their last meeting, securing an 8-3 win on September 20.

Cincinnati will send Rhett Lowder to the mound, a right-hander who has shown flashes of brilliance with a 1.74 ERA. However, his peripheral stats suggest some luck, as indicated by his 4.08 xFIP. He faces a Pirates lineup that ranks 27th in overall offense and 26th in home runs, which could play to Lowder’s advantage, despite his mediocre projections for today’s game.

On the flip side, Pittsburgh counters with Jared Jones, another right-hander who has been a reliable arm with a 3.85 ERA and ranks as the 69th best pitcher in MLB. Despite his good season performance, Jones projects to have a challenging outing, facing a Reds offense that ranks 2nd in stolen bases and middle-of-the-pack in home runs. The Reds’ offense is bolstered by Elly De La Cruz, who has been a standout with a .814 OPS and 24 home runs this season.

Both teams will rely heavily on their starting pitchers, as neither bullpen ranks particularly well, with Cincinnati at 25th and Pittsburgh at a slightly better 18th. The game projects to be competitive, with the Reds slightly favored at -120 odds, implying a 52% win probability. Meanwhile, advanced projections see a tight contest, estimating both teams to score above five runs, highlighting the potential for a high-scoring affair in this NL Central clash.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Jared Jones – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  When assessing his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Jared Jones in the 92nd percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  As it relates to his home runs, Oneil Cruz has experienced some negative variance this year. His 21.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 31.0.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Connor Joe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Connor Joe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Jake Fraley is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Will Benson, Noelvi Marte, Elly De La Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line -1.5 (+165)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 77 of their last 135 games (+11.30 Units / 6% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.95 Units / 53% ROI)
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Jake Fraley has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+6.80 Units / 25% ROI)