Player Prop Picks for Phillies vs Blue Jays – 6/5/2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Toronto Blue Jays

On June 5, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Philadelphia Phillies in what promises to be an exciting interleague matchup at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays are looking to build on their recent success after a narrow 2-1 victory over the Phillies on June 4, while the Phillies are attempting to bounce back after suffering a disappointing loss in that game.

As it stands, the Blue Jays hold a record of 32-29, and while they are having an above-average season, they are still trying to solidify their position in a tightly contested Wild Card race. In contrast, the Phillies have positioned themselves as serious contenders with a 37-24 record, placing them among the top teams in the league.

The starting pitcher’s matchup will feature Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays and Jesus Luzardo for the Phillies. Bassitt, who is averaging 5.5 innings per start this year, is projected to allow 3.0 earned runs and 5.6 hits, showcasing a mixed bag of potential outcomes. While his current ERA sits at 3.80, advanced statistics suggest he has been unlucky thus far. Luzardo, coming off a rough outing where he surrendered 12 earned runs in just 3 innings, is also looking to rebound. His 3.58 ERA reflects his solid potential, but with a high strikeout rate going against a low-strikeout Blue Jays lineup, this could tilt the advantage in favor of Toronto.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 11th in MLB, with a good batting average of .260. Meanwhile, the Phillies boast a more robust attack, ranking 6th overall and 5th in team batting average at .272. Despite this, projections suggest a close matchup with both teams averaging an implied total of 4.25 runs. With the Blue Jays’ bullpen ranked 6th, they could have the edge in a tight contest, making this game one to watch for baseball fans and bettors alike.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Jesus Luzardo’s slider utilization has increased by 6.9% from last season to this one (29.2% to 36.1%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Brandon Marsh has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.9-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 92.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-110)
  The 5th-best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Chris Bassitt’s fastball velocity has dropped 2 mph this year (90.6 mph) below where it was last year (92.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Philadelphia’s 2nd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Davis Schneider, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Toronto’s 90.2-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in Major League Baseball: #4 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+8.85 Units / 34% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 56 games (+7.20 Units / 8% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+115)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.05 Units / 32% ROI)