Miami Marlins
Cincinnati Reds
(-120/+100)-140
On July 9, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Miami Marlins at Great American Ball Park for the third game of their series. Both teams are currently navigating average seasons, with the Reds sitting at a record of 46-46 while the Marlins are at 42-48. Despite each team’s struggles, the Reds have shown potential, particularly with Andrew Abbott on the mound. Abbott is projected to start and holds a solid 7-1 record this season, boasting an impressive 2.15 ERA, although his 4.11 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit lucky.
The Reds’ offense ranks 15th overall in MLB, which is right at average, while the Marlins rank 17th. Miami’s offense has not been able to capitalize on home runs, ranking 26th in that category this season, and will face a challenge against Abbott, who is a high-flyball pitcher. The Reds have a high implied team total of 4.54 runs, suggesting they’ll have opportunities to score.
Sandy Alcantara, who has struggled this season with a 4-8 record and a troubling ERA of 7.01, will be pitching for the Marlins. Despite his rough patch, projections suggest he may perform better moving forward, with a xFIP of 4.52 suggesting he’s been unlucky. However, given Abbott’s strong form and the Reds’ moderate offensive output, Cincinnati could well hold the upper hand in this matchup.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)Sandy Alcantara is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue in MLB — today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Heriberto Hernandez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Heriberto Hernandez pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.9% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Andrew Abbott’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (52.1% vs. 46.5% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Bashing 4 dingers in the last 14 days, Spencer Steer has been on fire in recent games.Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
- The Cincinnati Reds have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Will Benson, Tyler Stephenson, Elly De La Cruz).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Sandy Alcantara has hit the Strikeouts Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.35 Units / 33% ROI)