Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
(-105/-115)+100
As the San Diego Padres prepare to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 22, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race within the National League West. The Padres, currently holding a record of 72-56, are just a game behind the Dodgers, who sit at 73-55. With only a handful of games left in the season, this matchup carries significant weight for both teams as they aim to solidify their postseason aspirations.
In their last encounter, the Padres emerged victorious, defeating the Dodgers 8-4. However, recent performances indicate that the Dodgers come into this game with a slight edge, having won their last matchup against the Padres and showcasing a powerful offense that ranks 2nd in the league. Led by a standout hitter who has 44 home runs this season, the Dodgers have demonstrated their ability to capitalize on mistakes, especially against a pitcher like Yu Darvish, who struggles with fly balls.
Yu Darvish is set to take the mound for the Padres, but his recent form raises concerns. With a Win/Loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 5.97, Darvish has been less than stellar, projecting to pitch only 4.6 innings and allow an average of 2.6 earned runs. This could be problematic against a Dodgers lineup that has hit 190 home runs this season. Darvish’s high flyball rate could play into the Dodgers’ hands, amplifying their power advantage.
On the other side, Blake Snell will take the hill for the Dodgers. With a record of 3-1 and a remarkable ERA of 1.80, Snell has proven to be a dominant force this season. His ability to limit runs while averaging over 5 strikeouts per outing bodes well for Los Angeles.
While the current betting line reflects a close contest, with the Padres at +105 and the Dodgers at -125, the projections suggest that this game may lean in favor of the Dodgers, given their superior offensive metrics and Snell’s recent performance.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Blake Snell – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Blake Snell has used his curveball 7.2% less often this season (18.9%) than he did last season (26.1%).Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Mookie Betts has been unlucky this year, posting a .299 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .346 — a .047 deviation.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
- Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Will Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Yu Darvish – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Yu Darvish’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.3 mph this season (92.8 mph) below where it was last season (94.1 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Ramon Laureano is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 19% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 90 games (+13.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+7.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+590/-1100)Ramon Laureano has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+11.50 Units / 144% ROI)