Player Prop Picks for Dodgers vs Braves – 9/16/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Atlanta Braves

As September races on, the Atlanta Braves (81-68) are looking to bounce back in a crucial National League matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers (88-61) on September 16, 2024. The Braves are currently sitting in a respectable position, but with the Dodgers riding high on a strong season, this game carries significant weight for both squads. The Dodgers took the previous game in the series, defeating the Braves 9-2 on September 15, 2024.

Atlanta is projected to send Max Fried to the mound. Fried, ranked 5th among MLB starting pitchers, has had an above-average season with a solid ERA of 3.46. However, his last outing was less than stellar, as he allowed four earned runs over six innings of work. Despite his struggles, Fried’s high groundball rate of 59% may serve him well against a powerful Dodgers lineup that has hit 196 home runs this season, the 3rd most in MLB.

On the other hand, the Dodgers will counter with the elite Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who boasts a 2.77 ERA and a 6-2 record in 15 starts this year. Although Yamamoto projects to pitch only 4.5 innings, his ability to limit earned runs will be pivotal. The projections indicate that the Braves will struggle to capitalize on their offensive power, which ranks 5th in home runs this season, given Yamamoto’s groundball tendencies.

Meanwhile, the Braves’ offense has been marked by inconsistency, ranking only 14th overall in MLB. However, with Marcell Ozuna leading the team with a 0.304 batting average and 37 home runs, there’s potential for a breakout performance. As both teams eye a crucial win, this matchup promises to be tightly contested, with the Braves looking to reclaim momentum.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2230 rpm) has been quite a bit higher than than his seasonal rate (2148 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Extreme flyball bats like Max Muncy tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Fried.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Dodgers hitters as a group grade out 3rd- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 9.2% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Max Fried (52.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 3 GB hitters in Los Angeles’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Michael Harris II is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Michael Harris II hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 137 games (+36.05 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 89 games (+12.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-260/+195)
  Shohei Ohtani has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 22 away games (+11.85 Units / 28% ROI)