Player Prop Picks for Braves vs Padres – 3/29/2025

Atlanta Braves

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres host the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park on March 29, 2025, in a significant National League showdown. Both teams come into this game after their previous matchup, where the Padres secured a decisive victory, extending their strong start to 2-0 this season. Conversely, the Braves are struggling with a record of 0-2, making this contest crucial for them to find their footing.

On the mound, the Padres are set to start Randy Vasquez, who is projected to pitch an average of 4.7 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs. However, his ranking as the 425th best starting pitcher in MLB indicates that he has not performed well historically, and his projections for 4.8 hits and 1.6 walks allowed further highlight potential vulnerabilities. In contrast, Spencer Schwellenbach of the Braves is viewed as one of the league’s better options, ranking 20th among starters. His projections to pitch 5.3 innings and allow 2.2 earned runs could provide a much-needed advantage for Atlanta.

Despite the Padres’ underdog status with a moneyline of +120 and an implied team total of 3.73 runs, their early-season performance suggests they are capable of surprising outcomes. The projections show that Schwellenbach’s strikeout rate is below average, which may provide the Padres’ hitters with opportunities to capitalize. Meanwhile, the Braves’ offense is expected to score more, with an implied total of 4.27 runs, yet their slow start raises questions about their ability to deliver.

As the teams clash, expect the Padres to leverage their momentum against a Braves lineup that is still seeking its rhythm. This matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors looking to back an underdog with a strong start and a favorable home-field advantage.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Spencer Schwellenbach to have a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  The switch-hitting Jurickson Profar will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side (0) today against Randy Vasquez
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  The Atlanta Braves have 6 batters in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Randy Vasquez in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Martin Maldonado (the Padres’s expected catcher today) projects as a horrible pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+130)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 105 games (+17.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 98 of their last 160 games (+35.40 Units / 20% ROI)