Player Prop Picks for Astros vs Orioles – 8/21/2025

Houston Astros

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Baltimore Orioles

On August 21, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Houston Astros at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in what marks the first game of their series. The matchup is particularly intriguing given the contrasting records of both teams—Baltimore sits at 59-67, while Houston boasts a stronger 69-58 record. This contest pits an Orioles squad having a below-average season against an Astros team that is above average.

In their last outing, Brandon Young will take the mound for Baltimore, projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs on average. Despite struggling this year with a 1-6 record and a troubling 5.68 ERA, advanced stats suggest he may have been unlucky, pointing to a 4.30 xFIP that indicates better performance could be on the horizon. On the other side, Jason Alexander, who has a 3-1 record with a 4.74 ERA, has also faced his share of challenges, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB according to Power Rankings.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 21st in MLB, which aligns with their struggles this season, while Houston’s offensive capabilities are slightly better, sitting at 14th overall. This disparity could prove crucial; Baltimore’s best hitter is performing well, recording a .294 batting average and 1.252 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Alexander’s projections indicate he may allow an average of 3.1 earned runs and 5.7 hits today, suggesting that Baltimore could capitalize on any mistakes.

With both teams having similar moneylines set at -110, indicating a tightly contested game, Baltimore’s high implied team total of 4.50 runs could set them up for a crucial victory at home against the Astros.

Houston Astros Insights

• Jason Alexander – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-150)
  Jason Alexander has recorded 17.3 outs per GS this year, grading out in the 87th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Victor Caratini’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Brandon Young has been unlucky this year, posting a 5.68 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.44 — a 1.24 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Dylan Carlson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Dylan Carlson has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph dropping to 84.4-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Baltimore Orioles (25.2% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-most strikeout-prone team of hitters on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 103 games (+18.03 Units / 16% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 87 games (+14.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+185/-245)
  Jesus Sanchez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)