Player Prop Odds for White Sox vs Twins – Wednesday September 03, 2025

Chicago White Sox

@

Minnesota Twins

On September 3, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Chicago White Sox at Target Field in a pivotal matchup in the American League Central. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Twins holding a record of 62-76 and the White Sox sitting at 51-88. The Twins have already been eliminated from division contention, while the White Sox are mired in a terrible season.

In their most recent game, the Twins managed to secure a win against the White Sox, increasing the stakes for this series finale. The Twins are projected to start Zebby Matthews, who, despite a middling 4-4 record and a 5.06 ERA, ranks as the 60th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This ranking indicates that Matthews has the potential to perform better than his current statistics suggest. He faces off against Yoendrys Gomez, who has struggled this season as well, with a 5.20 ERA and a low ranking among pitchers.

The Twins’ offense, while not spectacular—ranking 19th overall—has shown some signs of life. Their best hitter has been particularly effective recently, posting a .333 batting average and an impressive 1.370 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the White Sox offense ranks 28th in MLB and has struggled to generate consistent production, making this matchup even more favorable for the Twins.

With the Twins favored at a moneyline of -175 and an implied team total of 4.79 runs, they are positioned to capitalize on the White Sox’s weak offense. However, the matchup will hinge on Matthews’ ability to harness his skills and limit the damage against a struggling White Sox lineup. As the series draws to a close, both teams will look to finish strong, but the odds appear to favor the Twins in this critical contest.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Yoendrys Gomez is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #24 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Andrew Benintendi has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (93% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Chicago White Sox project to score the 5th-least runs of all teams on the slate today, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  With 6 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Zebby Matthews encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Byron Buxton has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92-mph to 97.2-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Minnesota Twins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Outman, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+10.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 79 of their last 138 games (+14.45 Units / 9% ROI)
• Kyle Teel – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1500)
  Kyle Teel has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+17.30 Units / 346% ROI)