Detroit Tigers
Washington Nationals
(+100/-120)+125
The Washington Nationals will host the Detroit Tigers on July 3, 2025, in the third game of their interleague series. The Nationals, currently struggling with a record of 36-50, are not in contention for a playoff spot. In stark contrast, the Tigers boast a strong 54-33 record and are riding high on a solid season. In their last matchup, the Tigers triumphed over the Nationals, showcasing their offensive prowess.
On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start Jake Irvin, who has had an average season with a 4.73 ERA and a 5.41 xERA that suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate in his performances thus far. Irvin has started 17 games this year, holding a 6-3 record, but his projections indicate he could struggle against a potent Tigers lineup. He is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing approximately 3.0 earned runs, 5.7 hits, and 1.5 walks.
The Tigers will counter with Dietrich Enns, who has only started once this season but has posted an impressive 0.00 ERA. However, his 3.57 xFIP suggests he may not sustain this level of performance. Enns is projected to pitch 4.4 innings, giving up about 2.6 earned runs, which could be a concern given his limited experience.
Offensively, the Tigers rank 5th in MLB, while the Nationals sit at 20th, indicating a significant gap in firepower. The projections suggest the Nationals will score around 4.27 runs, while the Tigers are expected to push for a higher total of 5.23 runs. With a high game total of 9.5 runs, this matchup could be a showcase of the Tigers’ offensive strength against the Nationals’ inconsistent pitching and batting.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Riley Greene – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Riley Greene has big-time power (92nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (27.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jake Irvin struggles to strike batters out (21st percentile K%) — great news for Greene.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Detroit Tigers hitters collectively grade out 4th- in the game for power this year when using their 10.3% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Jake Irvin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Jake Irvin’s 91.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 2.3-mph fall off from last season’s 93.9-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)James Wood has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.8-mph average to last season’s 96.6-mph EV.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Washington Nationals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+120/-150)The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+9.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-145)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 78 games (+11.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- Riley Adams – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+600/-1100)Riley Adams has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games at home (+8.25 Units / 82% ROI)