Detroit Tigers
Washington Nationals
(-110/-110)+115
On July 3, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the Detroit Tigers at Nationals Park for the third game of their series. In a notable turnaround, the Nationals triumphed over the Tigers 9-4 in their last matchup, a surprising result given their struggles this season. Currently, the Nationals sit at 36-50, while the Tigers boast a strong 54-33 record, reflecting their excellent performance thus far.
The Nationals will send Jake Irvin to the mound, who has had a mixed season. While Irvin holds a decent 6-3 record and an average ERA of 4.73, he has shown signs of vulnerability, having recently been shelled for 8 earned runs in a mere 4 innings on June 27. His projections suggest he may allow around 3 earned runs today, but his tendency to give up hits (projected at 5.8) and walks (1.5) raises concerns for this matchup.
Conversely, the Tigers will counter with Dietrich Enns, who is projected to pitch 4.6 innings today. Despite his impressive ERA of 0.00, the projections indicate he may regress, as his xFIP of 3.57 suggests he’s been riding a wave of good fortune.
Offensively, the Tigers are firing on all cylinders, ranking 5th in MLB while the Nationals rank 20th. The Nationals’ offense has shown some life recently, but they still face a tough challenge against a potent Tigers lineup that includes a best hitter batting .296 with an OPS of .898. With a game total set at 9.5 runs, bettors may consider the Tigers as solid favorites, especially given their current form and the Nationals’ inconsistency.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Riley Greene – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Riley Greene has big-time power (92nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (27.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jake Irvin struggles to strike batters out (21st percentile K%) — great news for Greene.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Detroit Tigers hitters collectively grade out 4th- in the game for power this year when using their 10.3% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Jake Irvin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Jake Irvin’s 91.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 2.3-mph fall off from last season’s 93.9-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)James Wood has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.8-mph average to last season’s 96.6-mph EV.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Washington Nationals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+9.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-135)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 78 games (+11.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- Riley Adams – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)Riley Adams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.35 Units / 76% ROI)