Player Prop Odds for Phillies vs Guardians – Sunday May 11, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Cleveland Guardians

On May 11, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Progressive Field in an intriguing Interleague matchup. Both teams enter with identical records of 23-16, indicating a competitive spirit as they vie for supremacy in this three-game series. The Guardians are looking to bounce back after a tough 7-1 loss to the Phillies the day before, while the Phillies are riding high on that victory.

Cleveland’s Luis Ortiz, projected to start, has had a rough season, with a 2-3 record and an ERA of 5.30, ranking him 125th among MLB starting pitchers. His last outing was particularly troubling, as he allowed 5 earned runs in just 5 innings. Ortiz’s high walk rate of 11.5% could be detrimental against a patient Phillies lineup that ranks 6th in MLB for walks drawn. If Ortiz struggles with control, it could spell trouble for the Guardians.

On the other hand, Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler, an elite pitcher ranked 3rd in MLB, boasts a 3-1 record and a solid ERA of 3.35. Wheeler’s last performance was impressive, going 7 innings with only 2 earned runs and striking out 9 batters. His projections suggest he will continue to perform well, allowing just 2.1 earned runs on average today.

While the Guardians’ offense ranks 15th overall, they have some potential with their best hitter showing a strong recent performance, hitting .348 over the last week. However, their overall team batting average sits at a troubling 20th in MLB, which may hinder their ability to capitalize on opportunities against a strong pitcher like Wheeler.

With the Guardians listed as significant underdogs with a moneyline of +155, the projections suggest they may struggle to score, with an implied team total of just 3.26 runs. Meanwhile, the Phillies are favored at -175, with an average implied team total of 4.24 runs. It will be interesting to see if Cleveland can turn the tide and capitalize on any mistakes from Wheeler, but the odds seem to favor the Phillies in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Zack Wheeler’s 2448-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 90th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Max Kepler has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 10.4% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-170)
  The Philadelphia Phillies projected lineup grades out as the 4th-best of the day in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Luis L. Ortiz has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 5.7 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  This season, Daniel Schneemann has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 99.9 mph compared to last year’s 90.5 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen projects as the 6th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.70 Units / 36% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Zack Wheeler has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.35 Units / 25% ROI)