Player Prop Odds for Phillies vs Braves – Thursday April 10, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies face off at Truist Park on April 10, 2025, the stakes grow higher in this National League East matchup. The Braves, struggling with a 2-9 record this season, are looking to snap a losing streak after a narrow 4-3 defeat in yesterday’s game—their record indicates they are enduring a rough start. In contrast, the Phillies are riding high at 8-3, fresh off their win in the last clash, showcasing a significant difference in momentum.

Pitching for the Braves will be Spencer Schwellenbach, who has made quite an impression this season with a stellar 0.00 ERA in his 2 starts, earning him the 12th-best rank in MLB based on the leading MLB projection system. However, his 2.12 xFIP suggests he might have been fortunate in his performances thus far. Schwellenbach is known for his low walk rate, which might play a crucial role against the patient Phillies offense that ranks 5th in walks drawn this season.

On the other hand, the Phillies will counter with Jesus Luzardo, who has enjoyed success early in the season with a 1.50 ERA and a solid 2-0 record. Luzardo’s performance makes him the 38th-ranked starter in MLB, and he projects well against a Braves lineup that sits 22nd in offense.

Further complicating matters for Atlanta, their offense has shown to be lackluster, ranking 30th in stolen bases and 25th in home runs. Conversely, the Phillies boast a potent offense, positioned 3rd overall, which could expose the Braves’ pitching vulnerabilities.

Given the current moneyline favoring the Braves at -135, bettors might see value in the Phillies, whose implied total runs are lower than projected. This matchup could result in an exciting battle, but the Braves’ uphill fight against a high-flying Phillies team could leave them struggling to find their footing.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Among all SPs, Jesus Luzardo’s fastball velocity of 95.3 mph ranks in the 82nd percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Alec Bohm is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (+120)
  The Philadelphia Phillies projected offense projects as the strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-210/+160)
  Spencer Schwellenbach has tallied 18 outs per GS since the start of last season, ranking in the 96th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Matt Olson has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95-mph average to last season’s 91.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta Braves batters as a unit rank 2nd- in the league for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 10.2% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 42 games at home (+3.05 Units / 6% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 84 of their last 166 games (+0.43 Units / 0% ROI)
• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+135/-170)
  Spencer Schwellenbach has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.65 Units / 102% ROI)