Player Prop Odds for Mets vs Yankees – Wednesday July 24, 2024

New York Mets

@

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees and New York Mets are set to clash on July 24, 2024, at Yankee Stadium in the second game of their interleague series. The Yankees, with a 60-43 record, are having a stellar season, while the Mets, at 52-48, are performing above average. This matchup features two pitchers with contrasting seasons: Gerrit Cole for the Yankees and Sean Manaea for the Mets.

Gerrit Cole, the Yankees’ ace, has had an interesting season. Despite a 4.60 ERA, his 3.74 SIERA suggests he’s been unlucky and could perform better going forward. Cole’s 3-1 record in six starts and his ranking as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB indicate his high potential. Cole projects to pitch six innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs while striking out 6.5 batters. However, his tendency to give up flyballs (43% FB rate) could be a concern against a powerful Mets lineup that ranks 5th in home runs this season.

On the other side, Sean Manaea has a solid 3.73 ERA but his 4.30 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit fortunate. Manaea’s 6-4 record in 19 starts is commendable, but his control issues (9.7% BB rate) could be problematic against a Yankees offense that leads MLB in walks. The projections are not favorable for Manaea, who is expected to pitch just 4.9 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 2nd best lineup in MLB, highlighted by their power (2nd in home runs) and patience at the plate. Their best hitter over the last week, Juan Soto, has been on fire with a .500 batting average and 1.587 OPS. Meanwhile, the Mets’ offense is no slouch, ranking 7th overall and 5th in home runs. Jeff McNeil has been their standout performer recently, with a .400 batting average and 1.612 OPS over the last seven games.

The Yankees’ bullpen ranks 19th, slightly better than the Mets’ 20th ranked bullpen, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Given these factors, the Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -165 and an implied win probability of 60%. With their potent offense and Cole’s potential for a bounce-back performance, the Yankees seem well-positioned to take this game.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Sean Manaea’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this year (91.8 mph) below where it was last year (92.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• J.D. Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  J.D. Martinez has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.4-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 90.9-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.7%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-165)
  Compared to league average, Gerrit Cole has been granted more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an extra 6.1 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  DJ LeMahieu has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .237 rate is considerably lower than his .315 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-170)
  The best projected batting order of the day in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+120)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 42 of their last 77 games (+12.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 58 of their last 95 games (+14.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-135/+105)
  Juan Soto has hit the Walks Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.45 Units / 47% ROI)