Player Prop Odds for Mariners vs Royals – Wednesday September 17, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals host the Seattle Mariners at Kauffman Stadium on September 17, 2025, the matchup carries significance for both teams despite the Royals not contending for the playoffs. The Mariners (83-68) currently hold a solid position, showcasing their strength throughout the season. Meanwhile, the Royals (75-76) are seeking to improve but are experiencing an average year overall.

In their previous game, the Mariners dominated the Royals with a decisive 12-5 victory, giving them momentum heading into this matchup. The Mariners are projected to start Bryce Miller, who has struggled this season, holding a 5.59 ERA and a below-average ranking among pitchers. Conversely, Cole Ragans is set to take the mound for Kansas City. While Ragans has had his share of challenges with a 5.18 ERA, advanced metrics indicate he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better as the season progresses.

From a hitting perspective, the Mariners excel, ranking 3rd in MLB in home runs. This power could play a crucial role against Ragans, who projects to allow a concerning 3.3 hits and 1.5 walks on average today. On the other side, the Royals’ offense ranks a disappointing 24th in MLB, struggling to generate consistent scoring. Despite their offensive struggles, Ragans’s high strikeout rate (36.4 K%) could help mitigate some damage against a Mariners lineup that is the 5th most strikeout-prone.

With the Royals holding a current moneyline of -125 and an implied team total of 4.40 runs, there is potential for them to exceed expectations today. The projections suggest that Ragans may outperform his recent form, making this matchup even more compelling as both teams vie for momentum in what has already been a volatile series.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Bryce Miller’s 94.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1-mph drop off from last season’s 95.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Victor Robles – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.248) provides evidence that Victor Robles has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his .298 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Cole Ragans – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Cole Ragans to have a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 71 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Kyle Isbel has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 1.8% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Jac Caglianone hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 4th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 72 games at home (+24.65 Units / 30% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 82 of their last 148 games (+15.05 Units / 9% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 games (+8.65 Units / 75% ROI)