Player Prop Odds for Mariners vs Athletics – Monday September 02, 2024

Seattle Mariners

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Oakland Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to face the Seattle Mariners on September 2, 2024, both teams find themselves in the lower tier of the American League West standings. The Athletics currently sit at 59-78, reflecting a challenging season, while the Mariners are slightly above .500 at 69-68. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and both teams will look to gain an edge as they continue to navigate the latter part of the season.

In their last outing, the Athletics struggled and are looking to bounce back, while the Mariners are coming off a solid performance. Oakland’s starting pitcher, Osvaldo Bido, has had a mixed season, ranking as the 150th best starting pitcher in MLB. Although his ERA is a respectable 3.21, his underlying metrics suggest he has been somewhat fortunate, as indicated by his 4.71 xFIP. Bido has only started eight games this year, with a win/loss record of 5-3, but he projects to pitch just 4.8 innings today, which may be a concern.

On the other hand, Seattle will send out Logan Gilbert, who has been a standout with a ranking of 23rd among MLB starters. Gilbert’s ERA of 3.09 is impressive, and he projects to pitch longer and more effectively than Bido, averaging 5.7 innings with only 2.2 earned runs allowed. Facing an Athletics lineup that ranks 2nd in strikeouts, Gilbert’s high strikeout rate (26.0 K%) could give him the advantage.

While the Athletics have shown power this season, ranking 4th in home runs, their overall offensive performance has been inconsistent, sitting at 18th in MLB. Conversely, the Mariners’ offense has struggled, ranking 28th overall and dead last in batting average. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup could hinge on the starting pitchers’ performances, making Gilbert the more favorable option for bettors today.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Logan Gilbert’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2070 rpm) has been a significant increase over than his seasonal rate (2002 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Victor Robles – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Victor Robles is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Projected catcher Cal Raleigh profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Oakland Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Osvaldo Bido is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #30 HR venue in the league in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Seth Brown – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Seth Brown stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Oakland Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+120)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 games (+11.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 43 away games (+7.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 19 games (+9.50 Units / 50% ROI)