Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers
(-110/-110)+100
As September 19, 2024, arrives, baseball fans will witness a compelling National League matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Arizona Diamondbacks at American Family Field. Both teams are in the playoff hunt, making each game crucial as the season winds down. The Brewers, boasting an 88-64 record, are having an impressive season, while the Diamondbacks aren’t far behind with an 84-68 record.
On the mound, the Brewers will send Tobias Myers, ranked 169th among MLB starting pitchers, despite his respectable 3.07 ERA. However, his 3.99 xFIP suggests he’s been lucky this season and might face challenges against Arizona’s elite offense, ranked 1st in the league. Myers will need to navigate a patient Diamondbacks lineup, known for drawing walks, although his solid control might mitigate this strength.
Arizona will counter with Brandon Pfaadt, the 85th-ranked pitcher, who has faced some bad luck with a 4.81 ERA but a promising 3.74 xFIP indicating potential improvement. Pfaadt struggled in his last outing, giving up eight earned runs in just two innings, but he has the upper hand against a Brewers lineup that’s been struggling to hit consistently. The Brewers offense, ranked 9th overall, has shown prowess in stealing bases, but their power at the plate has been inconsistent, ranking 15th in home runs.
In betting terms, Arizona is favored with a moneyline of -130, implying a 54% win probability, while the Brewers are at +110 with a 46% implied chance. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees the Diamondbacks with a 55% chance of victory, aligning closely with the betting markets. The projections anticipate a higher-scoring affair, with Arizona expected to score 4.78 runs compared to Milwaukee’s 4.04.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Out of all starters, Brandon Pfaadt’s fastball spin rate of 2556 rpm grades out in the 98th percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Ketel Marte has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.1-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 93.8-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Joc Pederson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Tobias Myers – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)Tobias Myers has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 6.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)Sal Frelick is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Arizona (#2-best of all teams on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Milwaukee Brewers in today’s game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .308, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .320 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+100)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 83 of their last 145 games (+9.65 Units / 5% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 88 games (+27.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+8.95 Units / 69% ROI)