Player Prop Odds for Blue Jays vs Reds – Monday September 01, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Cincinnati Reds

On September 1, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Great American Ball Park in an exciting interleague matchup. Both teams are coming off wins, with the Reds defeating their opponent 7-4 in their last game, while the Blue Jays secured an 8-4 victory. The Reds hold a record of 69-68, indicating an average season, while the Blue Jays boast a strong 79-58 record.

Hunter Greene, projected to start for Cincinnati, is enjoying a solid season, ranking as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. He has an impressive 2.81 ERA this year but has been somewhat lucky, as evidenced by his xFIP of 3.33. Greene’s high strikeout rate of 30.8% will be tested against the Blue Jays’ low-strikeout offense, which is the least in MLB.

Toronto’s Chris Bassitt will counter Greene on the mound. Although Bassitt is considered an average pitcher with a 4.14 ERA, he pitched well in his last start, allowing just 2 earned runs over 6 innings. His projections indicate he may struggle with walks and hits today, which could be concerning against a Reds offense ranked 20th overall.

A notable point of interest is the Reds’ hitting struggles, as their offense ranks 20th in MLB. In contrast, the Blue Jays’ lineup is among the best, currently ranked 2nd overall. This disparity could play a crucial role in determining the game’s outcome.

Despite the Reds being favored with a moneyline of -125 and an implied total of 4.14 runs, the projections suggest that the Blue Jays could keep the game competitive, making this matchup one to watch closely.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Chris Bassitt has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an extra 3.5 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Alejandro Kirk has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Hunter Greene’s high usage rate of his fastball (55.3% this year) is likely hurting his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Gavin Lux has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph dropping to 77.7-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cincinnati Reds have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 16.4° mark is among the highest in MLB this year (#2 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 115 games (+26.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 124 games (+23.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Noelvi Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+8.50 Units / 212% ROI)