Player Prop Odds for Angels vs Mariners – Friday September 12, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

@

Seattle Mariners

The September 12, 2025 matchup features a clash between the Seattle Mariners and the Los Angeles Angels at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, currently sitting at 78-68, are having an above-average season and are looking to solidify their standing. Meanwhile, the Angels, with a record of 69-77, find themselves in a below-average position.

In their previous encounter, the Mariners secured a win against the Angels, which adds to their momentum. The Mariners are projected to start Luis Castillo, a right-handed pitcher whose performance has been average this season, ranked 99th among approximately 350 starters according to advanced statistics. Castillo has started 29 games and holds a 9-8 record with a solid ERA of 3.85. While he has been able to limit earned runs to an elite average of 1.9, his tendency to allow an average of 4.3 hits and 1.3 walks could be potential pitfalls.

On the other side of the mound, the Angels will start Yusei Kikuchi, a left-handed pitcher with a less favorable outlook. Kikuchi, who has started 30 games, has a 6-11 record and an ERA of 4.18. His projected xERA of 4.68 suggests that he may have benefitted from good fortune this season, indicating a likelihood of underperformance moving forward.

Offensively, the Mariners rank 12th overall in MLB, buoyed by their 3rd place ranking in home runs and stolen bases, while the Angels struggle at 22nd in the league. With the Mariners boasting a strong bullpen ranked 9th, they have the upper hand in this matchup, making them the betting favorites with a moneyline of -165. Overall, the Mariners appear well-positioned to extend their positive trend against an Angels team that has been underwhelming this season.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Yusei Kikuchi has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 6.4 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Chris Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Chris Taylor is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Yoan Moncada – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Yoan Moncada pulls many of his flyballs (34.7% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Luis Castillo’s higher usage rate of his fastball this season (68.7 compared to 63.4% last year) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Cal Raleigh has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.4-mph average to last season’s 94.9-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Seattle Mariners have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cal Raleigh, Luke Raley, Eugenio Suarez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 76 of their last 137 games (+14.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Run Line +1.5 (-140)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 66 of their last 110 games (+17.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Victor Robles – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Victor Robles has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.80 Units / 33% ROI)