Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Rangers vs Athletics – September 24, 2024

Texas Rangers

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Oakland Athletics

The Oakland Athletics and Texas Rangers are set to face off on September 24, 2024, at the Oakland Coliseum in an American League West matchup. While both teams are out of contention for a playoff spot, the Athletics, with a season record of 67-89, find themselves in a rebuilding phase. Meanwhile, the Rangers, holding a 74-82 record, are also enduring a below-average season.

Oakland will turn to Mitch Spence on the mound, a right-hander who has struggled this season, ranking 184th among approximately 350 starting pitchers in MLB. Spence’s 4.30 ERA is average, but his peripheral stats suggest he’s one of the weaker pitchers in the league. Despite this, his ability to limit walks, projecting just 1.4 on average today, could be a silver lining for the Athletics.

On the flip side, the Rangers will counter with Nathan Eovaldi, a seasoned right-hander, who ranks as the 70th best starting pitcher. Eovaldi has been solid, boasting a 3.96 ERA and a promising 3.44 xFIP, indicating he’s been somewhat unlucky this season. His projected 6.3 strikeouts today could pose a challenge for the Athletics’ lineup.

Offensively, the Athletics have shown power, ranking 7th in home runs, but their overall offense is shaky, sitting at 20th in MLB. They will look to Shea Langeliers, who has been hot over the last week with a .412 batting average and a 1.324 OPS, to continue his momentum. The Rangers, however, rank 25th in offense and will rely on Wyatt Langford’s recent form, as he’s posted a .318 batting average and a 1.105 OPS over the past week.

Betting markets see this as a close game, with the Rangers slightly favored at -120, translating to a 52% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects a tight contest, giving the Rangers a 51% chance to triumph. With both teams aiming to finish the season on a high note, this matchup promises an intriguing battle despite the stakes being low.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nathan Eovaldi must realize this, because he has used his secondary pitches a lot this year: 62.4% of the time, grading out in the 89th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Marcus Semien is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Oakland (#3-worst of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Jonah Heim pulls many of his flyballs (34.7% — 85th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 10th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Mitch Spence – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Mitch Spence’s 90.1-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 4th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Seth Brown – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Seth Brown is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Oakland Athletics have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, Zack Gelof).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+100)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 61 games (+9.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 44 games (+19.75 Units / 37% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Josh H. Smith has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+9.55 Units / 24% ROI)