Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Phillies vs Blue Jays – June 03, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Toronto Blue Jays

On June 3, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Rogers Centre for the first game of their interleague series. The Blue Jays come into this matchup with a record of 31-28, while the Phillies are performing exceptionally well at 36-23. The Blue Jays are currently ranked 14th in offensive output, but they feature a solid batting average of .265, placing them 10th in MLB. In contrast, the Phillies boast the 5th best offense, highlighted by a strong .274 batting average.

In their last game, the Blue Jays’ best hitter has been on fire, posting a .500 batting average and 1.385 OPS over the past week. This surge could be crucial as they face Cristopher Sanchez, the elite left-handed pitcher who ranks 12th among MLB starters. Sanchez has a solid record of 4-1 and an impressive 3.32 ERA this season, but he faces a unique challenge against a Blue Jays lineup that has the 2nd fewest strikeouts in MLB. This dynamic could mitigate Sanchez’s high strikeout rate of 27.6%.

On the mound for the Blue Jays will be Bowden Francis, who has struggled with a 2-6 record and a 5.04 ERA this season. However, his 4.47 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, and he projects to allow just 2.8 earned runs today. The Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks 7th in MLB, providing a solid backup if Francis falters.

With the Blue Jays as underdogs at +125 and a projected team total of 3.90 runs, they may offer value against the favored Phillies, who have an implied team total of 4.60 runs. This matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors, especially given the potential for Francis to outperform expectations against a powerful Phillies offense.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  Cristopher Sanchez is an extreme groundball pitcher (54.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #2 HR venue in MLB — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Kyle Schwarber has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 43.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 30.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-135)
  The 4th-best projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Bowden Francis – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Bowden Francis’s four-seamer percentage has increased by 7% from last year to this one (49.2% to 56.2%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-140)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+7.25 Units / 38% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 games (+6.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-150/+115)
  Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+7.65 Units / 27% ROI)