Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Padres vs Rays – August 30, 2024

San Diego Padres

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the San Diego Padres on August 30, 2024, this Interleague matchup carries weight for both squads. The Rays, sitting at 66-67, are having an average season but remain 4 games behind a Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Padres, with a solid record of 76-60, are in a stronger position, looking to maintain their playoff momentum.

Both teams are coming off disappointing losses in their most recent games, with the Rays falling 6-2 to the Mariners and the Padres losing 4-1 to the Cardinals. In this context, the Rays will look to bounce back, with Taj Bradley projected to take the mound. Despite a recent rough outing where he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings, Bradley ranks as the 63rd best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his above-average talent with a respectable 3.77 ERA this season.

Contrastingly, Martin Perez is slated to start for the Padres. He has struggled this season, holding a 4.60 ERA and an xERA of 5.56, suggesting he has been fortunate so far. Both pitchers are expected to pitch around 5.5 innings, but while Bradley’s projections indicate he might allow approximately 2.2 earned runs, Perez is projected to give up about 2.9, which is below average.

Offensively, the matchup leans heavily in favor of the Padres. They rank 8th in MLB, while the Rays sit at a dismal 27th overall. However, the projections favor the Rays slightly, suggesting they may score around 4.53 runs against a Padres lineup that may struggle to reach 4 runs. With the Rays’ bullpen ranked 3rd and the Padres’ at 4th, this game could hinge on the late innings. Overall, the Rays present value for bettors, as their current moneyline suggests they may outperform expectations in this tightly contested game.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Martin Perez will “start” for San Diego Padres today but will fill the role of an opener and may not last more than a couple innings.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Manny Machado has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.1-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 92.3-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen projects as the 4th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-175/+135)
  Taj Bradley’s change-up utilization has increased by 14.3% from last season to this one (13.9% to 28.2%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jonny Deluca – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jonny Deluca’s true offensive skill to be a .294, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .042 gap between that mark and his actual .252 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 78 of their last 126 games (+27.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+105)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 53 games (+10.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• David Peralta – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  David Peralta has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.75 Units / 28% ROI)