Washington Nationals
New York Mets
(-120/+100)-220
The New York Mets host the Washington Nationals on September 19, 2025, in the first game of their series. The Mets enter the matchup with a solid 79-74 record, positioning themselves well in the National League East. Meanwhile, the Nationals sit at a disappointing 62-91, struggling throughout the season. In their last outing, the Mets claimed a convincing 6-1 victory, while the Nationals fell 9-4.
On the mound, the Mets are projected to start Brandon Sproat, who has had a mixed season so far. Despite an excellent ERA of 2.25, he ranks as the 137th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he may be a bit overrated. Sproat’s last start was strong, as he tossed 6 innings without allowing any earned runs, but he still has a Win/Loss record of 0-1 this season. Although he projects to go an average of 5.4 innings, his peripherals suggest he may permit around 2.5 earned runs, with a concerning 5.1 hits allowed on average.
Andrew Alvarez takes the mound for the Nationals, and he unfortunately finds himself among the league’s least effective pitchers. With an impressive ERA of 1.15, his underlying stats reveal a troubling 4.46 xFIP, implying that he might regress significantly. Alvarez’s projection of 4.5 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs allowed further emphasize the challenges he faces.
The Mets’ offense has been among the league’s best, ranking 6th overall, driven by powerful contributors. Their capacity to hit for power is evident, as they lead the league in home runs. Conversely, the Nationals’ offense is ranked 26th, struggling to score consistently, which could further complicate their chances against a Mets team that thrives on power and drawing walks.
With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the betting lines favor the Mets heavily at -230. Given their strong performance and recent success, they look to continue their winning ways against a Nationals squad that has had a tough go this season.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Andrew Alvarez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Because groundball batters struggle against groundball pitchers, Andrew Alvarez (48.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in the opposing team’s projected lineup.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Daylen Lile – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Daylen Lile is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Mets Insights
- Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Brett Baty has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 98.6-mph in the past two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-220)The New York Mets projected lineup ranks as the strongest of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+11.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 83 games (+12.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-135/+105)Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+13.20 Units / 47% ROI)