Player Prop Odds Breakdown for D-Backs vs Twins – September 13, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Minnesota Twins

On September 13, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Target Field for the second game of their series. The Twins currently sit at 65-82, struggling this season, while the Diamondbacks hold a record of 73-75, marking them as an average team. In their last outing, the Twins suffered a setback, and with the postseason out of reach, they’re looking to salvage pride in their final games.

Minnesota is projected to start Joe Ryan, who has been one of their few bright spots this year. Ranked as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, Ryan’s performance this season has been solid, boasting a 3.32 ERA and a 13-8 win/loss record over 27 starts. However, he faces a powerful D-Backs lineup that ranks 5th in MLB, particularly concerning given Ryan’s 42% flyball rate.

Conversely, Arizona will send Ryne Nelson to the mound. Though he has a respectable 3.48 ERA, his advanced stats show that he might be due for a rough outing, with an xFIP of 4.04 suggesting some luck has played a role in his success. The projections indicate that Nelson may struggle against a Twins offense that ranks 15th overall, but has exhibited inconsistency.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup promises some offensive fireworks. The Twins have a high implied team total of 4.54 runs, reflecting the oddsmakers’ belief in their potential to light up the scoreboard. As the betting favorite with a moneyline of -140, Minnesota could be poised for an upset against a D-Backs team that, despite their power, has shown vulnerability on the road.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Corbin Carroll has paced 29 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 93rd percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Gabriel Moreno hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Joe Ryan is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #23 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Byron Buxton has notched a .444 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year, placing in the 98th percentile.
  Explain: ISO is an advanced metric that measures a player’s ability to hit for power. Power, of course, is crucial for hitting home runs and extra-base hits.
• The Minnesota Twins have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 16.1° angle is among the highest in the league this year (#4 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+10.20 Units / 38% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 63 of their last 119 games (+15.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  Brooks Lee has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.25 Units / 29% ROI)