Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Cubs vs Orioles – July 09, 2024

Chicago Cubs

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Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs are set to face off on July 9, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in what should be an interesting interleague matchup. The Orioles, currently having a great season with a 57-33 record, are looking to extend their strong performance. The Cubs, on the other hand, are having a below-average season with a 42-49 record.

Baltimore will send Dean Kremer to the mound, who has been somewhat fortunate this season with a 3.93 ERA but a less impressive 4.55 FIP, suggesting he might regress. Kremer, ranked #161 among starting pitchers, is projected to pitch five innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, and striking out 4.5 batters on average. In his last outing, Kremer pitched brilliantly, going five innings with eight strikeouts and no earned runs.

Opposing Kremer will be Chicago’s Jameson Taillon, who has an excellent ERA of 2.99 but a 4.24 xFIP, indicating he too has been lucky. Taillon, whose win/loss record stands at 5-4, is projected to pitch 5.1 innings and allow 3.2 earned runs. He is a high-flyball pitcher, which could spell trouble against an Orioles lineup that leads MLB in home runs with 146. Taillon’s last outing was also strong, as he pitched seven innings with just two earned runs and seven strikeouts.

Offensively, Baltimore boasts the 2nd-best lineup in MLB, featuring standout performances from Gunnar Henderson, who has a .293 batting average and 27 home runs this season. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ offense ranks 22nd, with Ian Happ being their best hitter, having recorded a .799 OPS with 13 home runs.

Both bullpens rank in the middle of the pack, with Baltimore’s ranked 11th and Chicago’s 14th, according to Power Rankings. However, the Orioles’ bullpen has outperformed this ranking year-to-date.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Orioles a 60% chance of winning, aligning closely with their implied win probability of 63%. With a high game total of 9.0 runs, expect a potentially explosive game, especially with Baltimore’s powerful offense facing Taillon’s flyball tendencies. Keep an eye on the Orioles to take advantage of their home field and stellar hitting to secure a win.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  With 6 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Jameson Taillon will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Tomas Nido – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Tomas Nido is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Baltimore (#2-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (42.2% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Dean Kremer’s 92.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.2-mph drop off from last season’s 94.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-275/+205)
  Ryan Mountcastle has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (95% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-185)
  The Baltimore Orioles projected offense projects as the 3rd-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+14.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+10.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Adley Rutschman – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+165/-215)
  Adley Rutschman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 39% ROI)