Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
(-120/+100)-110
On April 14, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Houston Astros at Busch Stadium in a pivotal Interleague matchup. Both teams are struggling this season, each sporting a record of 7-8. The Cardinals have shown promise with the 4th best offense in MLB, highlighted by their 2nd best team batting average, suggesting they have the talent to turn their season around. In contrast, the Astros have found themselves towards the bottom of the league, ranking 25th in overall offense and 22nd in batting average.
In this matchup, Sonny Gray is projected to take the mound for St. Louis, while Framber Valdez will start for Houston. Gray has had an impressive start to the season, holding a 2-0 record despite an average ERA of 4.50. His advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, indicated by a more favorable 3.07 xFIP. He faces a challenge against a patient Astros lineup that ranks 6th in the league in walks, but with a low walk rate of 3.2% this year, Gray may mitigate that strength.
Valdez, on the other hand, has been outstanding, posting a 2.50 ERA and ranking 11th among MLB starters, indicating a potential decline as projections suggest he may have benefited from luck early this season. He projects to pitch 6.1 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, which could give the Cardinals a chance if they can capitalize on any mistakes.
Interestingly, the Cardinals’ best hitter has been on fire recently, batting .462 over the last week, while the Astros’ top performer has also been productive with a .320 average and three home runs in the same span. With a low Game Total set at 7.5 runs, this matchup could be tighter than expected, making it a compelling contest for bettors.
Houston Astros Insights
- Framber Valdez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Over his last 3 starts, Framber Valdez has posted a whopping 21 strikeouts.Explain: A pitcher who has been strong in his recent outings may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)The Barrel% of Jeremy Pena has significantly improved, with an increase from 5.5% last year to 12.8% this season.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Houston Astros with a 20.4% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Sonny Gray – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+115)Tallying 17.6 outs per game per started since the start of last season on average, Sonny Gray places in the 89th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Willson Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Willson Contreras’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 91.6-mph average last year has fallen off to 85.6-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The 6.9% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals grades them out as the #27 team in the league since the start of last season by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.35 Units / 3% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 92 of their last 162 games (+21.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)Yainer Diaz has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+7.15 Units / 46% ROI)