Player Prop Bets for White Sox vs Orioles – June 1st, 2025

Chicago White Sox

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on June 1, 2025, both teams are having disappointing seasons. The Orioles enter the game with a record of 21-36, while the White Sox sit even lower at 18-40. Despite the struggles, the Orioles will look to build on their recent victory over the White Sox by a score of 4-2 in their last game on May 31, 2025.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Charlie Morton for the Orioles and Adrian Houser for the White Sox. Morton has been battling inconsistency this season, holding a 1-7 record and a troubling ERA of 7.09. However, he showed signs of improvement in his last start, pitching six innings with just two earned runs allowed. The projections suggest Morton may be due for a better performance, as his xFIP of 4.60 indicates he might have been unlucky thus far.

On the other side, Houser has enjoyed a strong start to the season, boasting an impressive 0.00 ERA through two games. Yet, his xFIP of 3.82 suggests he could be due for some regression. The Orioles’ offense ranks 23rd in MLB, but the White Sox offense is even worse, sitting at 28th. With their bats struggling, the Orioles will need their strong bullpen, currently ranked 3rd in MLB, to support Morton if he runs into trouble.

The Orioles are currently favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -145, reflecting a high implied team total of 4.56 runs. Given the disparities in both teams’ performances and the projections, Baltimore may have the edge to capitalize on the White Sox’s weaknesses and secure another win.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Adrian Houser is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.4% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Oriole Park at Camden Yards — the #4 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Edgar Quero – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Edgar Quero has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Miguel Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Charlie Morton has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.6% less often this year (54.6%) than he did last year (61.2%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Gunnar Henderson has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last season’s 92.7-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Compared to their .331 overall projected rate, the .313 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Baltimore Orioles projected lineup in this game suggests this version of the lineup significantly missing some of their usual firepower.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games (+9.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 35 games (+11.05 Units / 28% ROI)
• Heston Kjerstad – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  Heston Kjerstad has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.65 Units / 52% ROI)