Player Prop Bets for Rockies vs Giants – July 26th, 2024

Colorado Rockies

@

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants (49-55) are set to host the Colorado Rockies (38-65) on July 26, 2024, at Oracle Park. This National League West matchup features two teams struggling this season, with the Giants having a below-average year and the Rockies enduring a terrible one. The Giants currently sit in fourth place in the division, while the Rockies languish in last place.

The Giants are projected to start Kyle Harrison, a left-handed pitcher who has shown flashes of brilliance this season with a 3.86 ERA and a 5-4 record over 17 starts. However, his peripheral stats suggest he might be due for some regression, as his 4.44 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat lucky. Harrison is projected to pitch 5.4 innings today, allowing 2.2 earned runs and striking out 5.6 batters on average.

On the mound for the Rockies is fellow southpaw Kyle Freeland, who has had a rough season with a 5.63 ERA and a 2-3 record over nine starts. Despite his struggles, Freeland’s 4.49 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and could see some improvement. He is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 4.7 batters.

Offensively, the Giants rank 15th in MLB, an average standing, while the Rockies rank 14th. However, the Giants struggle with power, ranking 23rd in home runs, and are dead last in stolen bases. The Rockies, on the other hand, have a bit more pop, ranking 10th in home runs, but also struggle with stolen bases, ranking 23rd.

One key advantage for the Giants is their bullpen, which ranks 2nd according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, compared to the Rockies’ 23rd-ranked bullpen. This disparity could be crucial in a close game.

Recent performance highlights include Tyler Fitzgerald for the Giants, who has been on fire over the last week with a .474 batting average, 4 home runs, and a 1.899 OPS. Jacob Stallings has been the Rockies’ best hitter over the same period, boasting a .438 batting average and a 1.313 OPS.

With the Giants as a big betting favorite (-180) and an implied win probability of 62%, they look poised to take the first game of the series, especially with their superior bullpen and home-field advantage. The Rockies, with a moneyline of +155 and an implied win probability of 38%, will need a standout performance from Freeland and their offense to pull off an upset.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Kyle Freeland is projected to average 2.85 earned runs in today’s game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Ryan McMahon has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.3-mph average to last year’s 90.8-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Kyle Harrison – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  The Colorado Rockies have 8 batters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Harrison in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Heliot Ramos is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Colorado (#2-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Heliot Ramos has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+8.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+150)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 66 games (+8.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jorge Soler – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-125/-105)
  Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 36 games (+10.70 Units / 28% ROI)