Player Prop Bets for Reds vs Marlins – August 6th, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins enter their matchup against the Cincinnati Reds on August 6, 2024, with their struggles evident in their current record of 42-71. They are coming off a disappointing loss to the Reds the day before, where they fell 10-3. In this series, the Marlins look to bounce back while the Reds, holding a record of 54-58, aim to continue their momentum after securing the previous win.

Projected starters for today’s game are Max Meyer for the Marlins and Nick Lodolo for the Reds. Meyer ranks as the 113th best starting pitcher in MLB, and while his 3.81 ERA reflects a decent performance, a higher FIP of 5.13 suggests he may have been fortunate so far. He will need to improve on his recent outing, where he allowed four earned runs over five innings. In contrast, Lodolo, ranked 51st, has shown more consistency with an 8-4 record and a solid 3.99 ERA.

Meyer faces a challenging matchup against a Reds offense that ranks 16th overall in MLB but boasts a potent power threat, ranking 13th in home runs. The Marlins offense, on the other hand, ranks 29th in home runs, which plays into Lodolo’s groundball-heavy approach (48% GB%). This could work in the Marlins’ favor, as their lack of power might not heavily impact the game against such a pitcher.

While the betting market leans slightly towards the Reds, with a moneyline of -135 and an implied win probability of 55%, the projections show a tighter contest. The projections suggest the Marlins have a solid chance, projecting them to score 4.26 runs, suggesting value for bettors considering Miami’s +115 moneyline.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Recording 92.5 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Nick Lodolo checks in at the 79th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Jeimer Candelario is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Jeimer Candelario pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 4th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Max Meyer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Max Meyer’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (58.8% this year) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jake Burger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Jake Burger has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 96.2-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Derek Hill, Cristian Pache, Jesus Sanchez, Kyle Stowers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 44 games at home (+16.90 Units / 35% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 96 games (+10.85 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.75 Units / 40% ROI)