Player Prop Bets for Red Sox vs Yankees – 07 July 2024

Boston Red Sox

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New York Yankees

With the New York Yankees (55-36) and the Boston Red Sox (48-40) set for their American League East showdown on July 7, 2024, at Yankee Stadium, fans can expect an electric atmosphere. The Yankees have been dominant this season, sitting comfortably with a great record, while the Red Sox trail behind with an above-average performance. This game marks the third in a series where the Yankees triumphed over the Red Sox on July 6, winning by a staggering 14-4 margin.

The pitching matchup features the Yankees’ Luis Gil against the Red Sox’s Kutter Crawford. Both right-handers are having solid seasons, with Gil boasting a 3.41 ERA and a 9-4 win/loss record over 17 starts. However, his 4.26 xFIP suggests some regression might be due. Crawford, on the other hand, holds a 3.42 ERA but has struggled with a 4-7 record. His 4.00 xFIP also indicates he’s been somewhat fortunate.

The Yankees’ potent offense, ranked 3rd best in MLB, will be a crucial factor. They lead the league with 131 home runs, a stat that could spell trouble for Crawford, who is a high-flyball pitcher. The Red Sox, while boasting the 9th best offense, may find it challenging against Gil, who is a high-strikeout pitcher facing a lineup that ranks 3rd in most strikeouts.

Aaron Judge continues to be a standout for New York, with a .312 batting average, 32 home runs, and a 1.118 OPS. On Boston’s side, Jarren Duran has been a consistent performer with a .278 batting average and a .817 OPS. Over the last week, Ben Rice and Rafael Devers have been the best hitters for the Yankees and Red Sox, respectively, with both batting .333.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Yankees are projected to win with a 63% probability, higher than the betting market’s implied 54%. With the Yankees’ powerful offense and Gil’s strikeout potential, this game leans in favor of New York. Bettors might find value in backing the Yankees given the discrepancy in win probabilities.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Kutter Crawford – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Kutter Crawford’s curveball rate has fallen by 6.3% from last year to this one (12.1% to 5.8%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Rafael Devers has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 34.2 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is considerably higher than his 24.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Dominic Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Dominic Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Over his previous 3 games started, Luis Gil has suffered a substantial drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2461 rpm over the whole season to 2389 rpm in recent games.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Benjamin Rice has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-130)
  The 2nd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 63 games (+13.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+11.35 Units / 36% ROI)
• Trent Grisham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)
  Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+8.85 Units / 34% ROI)