Player Prop Bets for Red Sox vs Angels – June 25th, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels will host the Boston Red Sox in the third game of their series at Angel Stadium on June 25, 2025. Both teams are hovering around .500, with the Angels sitting at 39-40 and the Red Sox at 40-41. The Angels are currently ranked 30th in bullpen performance, a significant concern as they try to build momentum following a narrow 3-2 victory over the Red Sox yesterday. Meanwhile, the Red Sox will look to bounce back from that loss, which marked a disappointing end to their previous game.

On the mound, the Angels will send Yusei Kikuchi, a left-handed pitcher with a 3.01 ERA this season, which is impressive despite his 2-6 record. Kikuchi has shown resilience, recently pitching 7 innings with only 2 earned runs and 9 strikeouts in his last start on June 20. However, his 4.33 xFIP suggests he may have benefited from some favorable circumstances this season, indicating that he might not maintain this level of performance going forward.

Conversely, Richard Fitts will take the hill for the Red Sox. The right-hander has struggled, going 0-3 with a 4.71 ERA. His last outing was particularly rough, allowing 5 earned runs in just 1 inning on June 2. Fitts faces a tough challenge against an Angels offense that, while ranked 24th overall, ranks 3rd in home runs.

Betting markets currently favor the Angels, setting their moneyline at -130, which implies a 54% chance of winning. Given Kikuchi’s recent form and the Red Sox’s struggles with Fitts on the mound, the Angels may have the upper hand in this matchup despite their offensive inconsistencies. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting an expectation of a competitive game.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Richard Fitts is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #9 HR venue among all parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Carlos Narvaez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Carlos Narvaez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Nathan Eaton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nate Eaton in the 6th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Yusei Kikuchi has utilized his secondary offerings 9.7% more often this season (62.8%) than he did last year (53.1%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jo Adell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jo Adell has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.4-mph average to last season’s 94.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 5 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mike Trout, Jo Adell, Christian Moore, Travis d’Arnaud, Scott Kingery).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 46 games (+12.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 41 away games (+8.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  Nolan Schanuel has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+5.05 Units / 21% ROI)