Player Prop Bets for Nationals vs Pirates – September 7th, 2024

Washington Nationals

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals prepare for their matchup on September 7, 2024, both teams are looking to rebound from their recent struggles. The Pirates currently sit at 66-74, while the Nationals are slightly behind at 62-78. With both teams having below-average seasons, this game may not have playoff implications, but it carries weight in terms of pride and performance.

In their last encounter on September 5, the Pirates took the win against the Nationals, securing a decisive 9-4 victory. This victory not only boosts the Pirates’ morale, but it also highlights their offensive potential, despite ranking 28th in MLB for overall offense this season. The projections suggest that the Pirates could score around 4.50 runs today, which is a promising sign.

Mitch Keller is set to take the mound for Pittsburgh, boasting an 11-9 record and a solid ERA of 3.88 this season. Although Keller has had an uneventful start in his last outing, he is projected to pitch around 6.0 innings today, with an average of 2.8 earned runs allowed. His ability to manage the game will be crucial against a Nationals lineup that ranks 22nd in MLB offense, despite a better batting average at 18th.

On the other side, Mitchell Parker will start for Washington. With a 7-9 record and an ERA of 4.27, he has been deemed a below-average pitcher. His projections indicate he may struggle, allowing a high number of hits and walks.

With the Pirates favored at a -145 moneyline, there may be value in betting on the Nationals, as their win probability is projected to be slightly higher than what the betting market suggests. This matchup promises to be a close contest, and fans should keep an eye on how both teams respond after their last meeting.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Keibert Ruiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 89.9-mph figure last year has dropped off to 87.3-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Gallo, James Wood, Jose Tena).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  As it relates to his home runs, Oneil Cruz has been unlucky this year. His 20.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 32.6.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 61 of their last 106 games (+15.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-235)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 24 games (+10.60 Units / 26% ROI)