Seattle Mariners
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-105/-115)-115
On June 11, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Seattle Mariners at Chase Field in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams are hovering around .500, with the Diamondbacks at 33-34 and the Mariners at 33-33. This game will be the third in the series, and after last night’s contest, where Seattle managed to secure a narrow victory, tensions could be high as both teams aim to gain an edge.
The Diamondbacks will send Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound, who has had a rough season with a 1-3 record and a troubling ERA of 6.70. However, his xFIP of 3.91 suggests he may have been a victim of bad luck and could turn things around. Rodriguez’s high flyball rate (36 FB%) could be concerning against a Mariners offense that has hit 86 home runs this season, ranking 6th in MLB.
On the other side, Bryan Woo, with a solid 5-3 record and a stellar ERA of 3.07, is projected to start for Seattle. Woo’s low walk rate (3.7 BB%) could be key in countering the Diamondbacks’ patient approach at the plate, as they rank 3rd in MLB for walks. However, Woo also has a flyball rate of 37 FB%, which might expose him to the Diamondbacks’ potent offense that ranks 3rd in home runs.
The projections favor the Diamondbacks’ offense, which is ranked 3rd in MLB, compared to the Mariners’ 13th. With an implied team total of 4.45 runs for Arizona, they may have the upper hand to capitalize on Woo’s flyball tendencies. As both teams look to improve their standings, this matchup could hinge on how well Rodriguez can navigate the Mariners’ powerful lineup.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Bryan Woo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Bryan Woo’s four-seam fastball rate has decreased by 6% from last year to this one (49% to 43%) .Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Dylan Moore – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)There has been a decrease in Dylan Moore’s average exit velocity this year, from 88.4 mph last year to 85.2 mph nowExplain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Seattle Mariners have been the 7th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the futureExplain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-115)Out of every team in action today, the best infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Extreme groundball hitters like Eugenio Suarez tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryan Woo.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Arizona Diamondbacks batters as a group rank among the best in MLB this year (8th-) when it comes to their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 48 games (+11.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.65 Units / 37% ROI)