Cleveland Guardians
New York Yankees
(+100/-120)-165
As the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians prepare for Game 2 on October 15, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League League Championship matchup. The Yankees, playing at home in Yankee Stadium, are coming off a significant victory in Game 1, bolstering their push towards a potential World Series appearance. The Yankees, with their powerful offense ranked 3rd in Power Rankings and boasting the 2nd most home runs this season, are the favorites with a moneyline of -170, implying a 61% chance of winning.
Gerrit Cole takes the mound for the Yankees, bringing with him an impressive 3.41 ERA, good enough to be considered great by MLB standards. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Cole is expected to allow only 1.9 earned runs on average, making him a significant obstacle for the Guardians. While Cole’s strikeout projection is below-average, his ability to keep walks and hits to a minimum could prove crucial against a Guardians offense that ranks 17th overall.
On the other side, Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee, despite his solid 3.47 ERA, faces a daunting task against the Yankees’ explosive lineup. Bibee’s flyball tendencies could be a liability, given New York’s power-hitting prowess. However, Bibee’s low walk rate could mitigate the Yankees’ patience at the plate, as they lead the league in drawing walks.
Both teams feature strong bullpens, with Cleveland’s ranking 1st and New York’s 10th. In a matchup where pitching could be the deciding factor, these bullpens will play pivotal roles. While the Yankees have the edge, the Guardians’ ability to capitalize on their opportunities, such as through the hot bat of Brayan Rocchio, who boasts a .500 average over the past week, could make this a closer contest than expected.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 13.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)Tallying 92.3 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Tanner Bibee places in the 78th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Cleveland Guardians – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen grades out as the best among all MLB teams.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
New York Yankees Insights
- Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Gerrit Cole in the 90th percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Cleveland’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Austin Wells, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Gleyber Torres has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 113 games (+13.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games (+17.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Anthony Volpe has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+13.30 Units / 55% ROI)