Player Prop Bets for D-Backs vs Dodgers – May 19th, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Los Angeles Dodgers

On May 19, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the first game of a highly anticipated series. The Dodgers enter this matchup with a solid 29-18 record, currently sitting atop the National League West, while the Diamondbacks trail closely with a 25-22 mark. Both teams boast impressive offenses, with the Dodgers ranking 1st in MLB in team batting average and 2nd in home runs, and the Diamondbacks not far behind at 3rd for overall offensive production.

The Dodgers are projected to start Landon Knack, a right-handed pitcher with a mixed bag of performances this season. Despite his mediocre 2-1 record and an ERA of 5.89, the projections suggest he may have been unlucky thus far, as indicated by his 3.74 xFIP. However, his struggles with control, as evidenced by his high walk rate of 9.8%, are concerning, especially against a Diamondbacks offense that’s 2nd in the league in drawing walks.

On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt will take the mound for Arizona, showcasing a solid 6-3 record and an impressive ERA of 3.73. While his FIP indicates he might be leaning on some good fortune, he has been a consistent presence in the rotation, averaging over 5 innings per start.

The Dodgers are favored with a moneyline of -145, reflecting their strong offensive capabilities and home-field advantage. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks, with a moneyline of +120, will aim to capitalize on Knack’s control issues and push back against the dominant Dodgers lineup. With a game total set at 9.5 runs, fans should expect plenty of action at Dodger Stadium as both teams look to assert their dominance in this early-season clash.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brandon Pfaadt has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.8% more often this year (51.2%) than he did last season (44.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-105/-125)
  Pavin Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (91% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Landon Knack – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Landon Knack’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2477 rpm) has been considerably higher than than his seasonal rate (2408 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Freddie Freeman will probably have an edge against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Mookie Betts hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)
  Michael Conforto has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+6.30 Units / 42% ROI)