Player Prop Bets for D-Backs vs Dodgers – May 19th, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Los Angeles Dodgers

On May 19, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium in a pivotal National League West matchup. The Dodgers, currently 29-18, are riding high with the best offense in MLB, boasting a 1st ranking in team batting average and 2nd in home runs. However, they are coming off a disappointing loss to the Diamondbacks, falling 6-4 in their previous game on May 18. Meanwhile, Arizona, sitting at 25-22, has been solid this season, ranking 3rd in offense and 5th in home runs.

The pitching matchup features Landon Knack for the Dodgers and Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks. Knack, who has struggled this season with a 5.89 ERA and a lowly 213th ranking among starting pitchers, is projected to pitch only 4.0 innings today and allow 2.5 earned runs. His control issues—highlighted by a high walk rate of 9.8%—could work in favor of a patient Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 2nd in walks drawn.

On the other hand, Pfaadt has been more reliable, with a solid 3.73 ERA and a record of 6-3. Although his projections indicate he may allow 3.5 earned runs today, he has shown the ability to limit walks at a rate of just 6.0%. This could neutralize the Dodgers’ high-walk offense, ranked 4th in MLB.

With the Dodgers favored at -150 and an implied team total of 5.71 runs, they have the edge in this matchup. However, given Knack’s recent struggles and the Diamondbacks’ strong offensive capabilities, this game could be more competitive than the odds suggest. The high Game Total of 10.5 runs further indicates an expectation of scoring, making this a keenly anticipated contest.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brandon Pfaadt has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.8% more often this year (51.2%) than he did last season (44.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Geraldo Perdomo has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Landon Knack – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Landon Knack’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2477 rpm) has been considerably higher than than his seasonal rate (2408 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Freddie Freeman will probably have an edge against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Mookie Betts hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)
  Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+6.15 Units / 68% ROI)