Arizona Diamondbacks
Chicago Cubs
(-120/+100)-130
The Chicago Cubs will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Wrigley Field on July 21, 2024, in the third game of their series. The Cubs are currently having a below-average season with a 47-53 record, while the Diamondbacks are above .500 at 51-48. With both teams vying for mid-season momentum, this game promises to be a crucial matchup.
Chicago’s offense has struggled, ranking 19th in MLB, with particularly weak spots in batting average (22nd) and home runs (20th). Their strength lies in stolen bases, where they rank 10th. Ian Happ has been the standout performer for the Cubs, boasting a .797 OPS with 15 home runs and 58 RBIs in 94 games. Despite this, the Cubs’ recent form hasn’t been great, as they lost 3-0 to the Diamondbacks on July 20.
Arizona’s lineup has been solid, ranking 9th overall with strong numbers in batting average (6th) and home runs (16th). Ketel Marte has been their offensive star, with a .875 OPS, 19 home runs, and 57 RBIs. The Diamondbacks also triumphed in their last game, defeating the Cubs 3-0, showing their capability to shut down Chicago’s offense effectively.
On the mound, the Cubs will start Shota Imanaga, who has an impressive 2.97 ERA and a strong 8-2 record over 17 starts. Despite these numbers, his peripheral stats suggest some luck, as his xFIP is higher than his ERA. The Diamondbacks will counter with Brandon Pfaadt, who has a 3.97 ERA and a 4-6 record in 19 starts. Pfaadt has been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his lower xERA of 3.39.
Both pitchers excel in control, with Imanaga’s walk rate at 4.0% and Pfaadt’s at 5.6%. Given the patience of both offenses, these matchups could favor the pitchers. The Cubs bullpen, ranked 28th, is a potential liability compared to the Diamondbacks’ more reliable 12th-ranked bullpen.
The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, sees this as a close game, with a slight edge to the Diamondbacks, projecting a 51% chance of winning. With the betting market giving Arizona a 47% implied win probability, there might be value in betting on the Diamondbacks.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- The Chicago Cubs have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+8.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 29 away games (+9.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.50 Units / 25% ROI)