Player Prop Bets for Cubs vs D-Backs – March 28th, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On March 28, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Chicago Cubs at Chase Field for the second game of their early season series. Both teams are looking to improve their standing after a rough start, with the Cubs sitting at 0-2. Arizona is slightly favored in this matchup, but the betting markets anticipate a close contest, reflected in the teams’ moneylines of -135 for the Diamondbacks and +115 for the Cubs.

Merrill Kelly is projected to take the mound for Arizona. He’s currently ranked as the 149th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, which indicates he is below average. Kelly’s projections suggest he will pitch 4.9 innings while allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, and he struggles with hits, projected to give up 4.8. This isn’t exactly reassuring, especially with his potential for walks at 1.7.

On the other side, Chicago will counter with Jameson Taillon, who has had a rough start to the season and is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB. Taillon’s projections are equally concerning, as he is expected to last 5.1 innings with a projection of 2.9 earned runs, while allowing 5.5 hits and 1.5 walks.

Given the Cubs’ struggles and Taillon’s poor projections, the Diamondbacks could leverage this matchup to secure a win at home. The projected game total is set at 8.5 runs, an average mark, indicating that both teams may struggle offensively, making the pitching duel even more critical for the outcome of this game.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  With 7 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Jameson Taillon will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Matt Shaw – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Matthew Shaw has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-145)
  Among all the teams playing today, the best infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Josh Naylor may have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Pavin Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 108 games (+29.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+12.85 Units / 29% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.45 Units / 24% ROI)