Player Predictions Overview for Yankees vs Rays – 09 July 2024

New York Yankees

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees square off on July 9, 2024, at Tropicana Field in an American League East matchup. The Yankees, having a stellar season with a 55-37 record, look to bounce back after a 3-0 shutout loss to the Red Sox. On the other hand, the Rays, sitting at 44-46, are in the midst of an average season and hope to rebound from a crushing 13-2 defeat to the Rangers on July 7.

The Rays will send right-handed Ryan Pepiot to the mound. Pepiot, ranked 67th in MLB starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has exhibited signs of bad luck this season. His 4.40 ERA contrasts with a 3.78 SIERA, suggesting potential for better performances ahead. However, his 4-5 record and average projections for today’s game—4.9 innings pitched, 2.4 earned runs allowed, and 5.3 strikeouts—indicate that he could face a tough challenge against a power-packed Yankees lineup.

Carlos Rodon starts for the Yankees. With a 9-6 record, Rodon is considered an average pitcher in the advanced-stat Power Rankings. Yet, his ERA of 4.45 and 3.93 SIERA also hint at some misfortune this year. Rodon is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allow 2.7 earned runs, and strike out 6.2 batters, which could be effective against a Rays offense that ranks 26th in team home runs.

The Yankees’ offense, ranked 3rd overall, boasts considerable firepower, highlighted by Aaron Judge’s impressive stats: 32 home runs, 83 RBIs, and a 1.105 OPS. Conversely, the Rays’ offense has struggled, ranking 21st overall and 26th in home runs. Isaac Paredes has been the standout for the Rays, but the team will need more than his contributions to keep pace with the Yankees.

Both bullpens present vulnerabilities, with the Rays ranked 16th and the Yankees 21st. However, betting markets and projections favor the Yankees slightly, with an implied win probability of 52% and a projection of 53%. The game is expected to be close, with the Yankees’ offensive strength potentially giving them the edge.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Carlos Rodon’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (49.7% compared to 39.6% last year) should work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Benjamin Rice is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  In his last outing, Ryan Pepiot didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out and only managed to post 0 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Isaac Paredes’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 86.9-mph EV last season has decreased to 84.8-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (45.9% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 56 of their last 86 games (+24.10 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games (+13.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-205)
  DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 52% ROI)