Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
(-110/-110)-275
As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on September 6, 2024, the stakes are low for both teams, with the Red Sox sitting at .500 (70-70) and the White Sox struggling with a dismal 32-109 record. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and the Red Sox are looking to capitalize on their strong offensive performance, currently ranked 6th in MLB.
In their last outing, the Red Sox faced a tough opponent but managed to keep their heads above water, while the White Sox have been on a downward spiral, showcasing one of the worst offenses in baseball. The projections suggest that Boston’s Nick Pivetta, who is considered an above-average pitcher with a 3.51 xFIP, may have the upper hand against a Chicago lineup that struggles to generate power, ranking 30th in the league with only 90 home runs this season. Pivetta’s ability to limit walks (5.8 BB% this year) could prove beneficial against a White Sox offense that ranks 2nd in fewest walks drawn.
Davis Martin, on the other hand, has not fared well on the mound, with a 0-3 record and projections indicating he may allow 3.0 earned runs in just 4.8 innings. This could be a significant advantage for the Red Sox, who are projected to score an impressive 5.21 runs based on current odds.
While Boston’s bullpen is ranked 14th in MLB, Chicago’s sits at the bottom at 30th, further tipping the scales in favor of the Red Sox. With their potent offense and Pivetta on the mound, the Red Sox are in a prime position to dominate this matchup and continue their pursuit of a winning record.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Davis Martin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Davis Martin’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (72.1% this year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Andrew Benintendi is likely to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- It may be wise to expect better numbers for the Chicago White Sox offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in the league this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-275)Among every team today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Triston Casas has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 28.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is inflated compared to his 19.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- The 8.9% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox makes them the #8 squad in the league this year by this metric.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+110/-140)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 58 away games (+6.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- Luis Robert – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)Luis Robert has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 25 of his last 39 games (+8.60 Units / 18% ROI)