Player Predictions Overview for Twins vs Phillies – 9/26/2025

Minnesota Twins

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Minnesota Twins at Citizens Bank Park on September 26, 2025, in what marks the opening game of their interleague series. The Phillies, currently holding a strong 94-65 record, have been one of the top teams in MLB this season, while the Twins are struggling at 69-90, reflecting a disappointing year.

In their last outings, the Phillies edged out a narrow 1-0 victory, showcasing their resilience, while the Twins managed a shutout win of 4-0. The Phillies’ offense ranks 3rd best in MLB, supported by an impressive 2nd place in team batting average, setting the stage for a potentially explosive performance against Minnesota’s lackluster 17th-ranked offense.

On the mound, Philadelphia is projected to start Aaron Nola, who has had an up-and-down year with a 4-10 record and a troubling 6.46 ERA. Although Nola’s ERA is concerning, his 3.85 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky and could improve. In contrast, the Twins will counter with Joe Ryan, who has been stellar with a 13-9 record and a 3.47 ERA, ranking him 21st among all MLB pitchers. Ryan’s ability to limit damage will be crucial, especially against a potent Phillies lineup.

Despite the favorable matchup for the Phillies, which includes their strong offensive metrics and a solid bullpen ranked 9th in MLB, they are listed as betting favorites with a moneyline of -150. The current game total is set at an average of 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive contest ahead. Given these factors, the Phillies look to capitalize on their home advantage and maintain their winning momentum against a struggling Twins squad.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Joe Ryan has used his non-fastballs 8.3% less often this year (37.3%) than he did last year (45.6%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• James Outman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  James Outman has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph to 97-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Minnesota Twins have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Edouard Julien, James Outman, Byron Buxton).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Aaron Nola’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.3 mph this year (91.2 mph) below where it was last year (92.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme flyball batters like Kyle Schwarber usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Joe Ryan.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 57 games at home (+14.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 72 away games (+13.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+160/-210)
  Byron Buxton has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+8.70 Units / 97% ROI)