Player Predictions Overview for Twins vs Phillies – 9/26/2025

Minnesota Twins

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on September 26, 2025, the stakes are high for the Phillies, who are having a standout season with a record of 94-65. In stark contrast, the Twins are struggling at 69-90, marking a tough year for them. This Interleague matchup is particularly notable as the Phillies look to solidify their position in the playoff race.

In their most recent game, the Phillies displayed their offensive prowess, contributing to their reputation as the 2nd best offense in MLB this season. The team is led by a best hitter who has been on fire lately, hitting .500 with 13 hits, 5 runs, and 7 RBIs over the last week. Coupled with the fact that their lineup ranks 2nd in team batting average and 8th in home runs, the Phillies are well-equipped to exploit the weaknesses in the Twins’ pitching staff.

Aaron Nola, projected to start for Philadelphia, has had a rocky year with a 4-10 record and an ERA of 6.46. However, his advanced metrics suggest he could perform better than his statistics indicate, as his 3.85 xFIP shows he has been unlucky. He projects to allow 2.7 earned runs and strike out 6.7 batters today, which could be enough to handle a Minnesota offense that ranks 17th in MLB and struggles with a .228 batting average.

On the other hand, Joe Ryan, who is having a strong season for Minnesota, carries a 3.47 ERA and a 13-9 record. While Ryan ranks as the 21st best starting pitcher, he is projected to allow 2.7 earned runs but could face challenges against the potent Phillies lineup.

With the Phillies as betting favorites at -165, their high implied team total of 4.71 runs reflects confidence in their ability to capitalize on the Twins’ weaknesses. This game provides an opportunity for Philadelphia to cement their dominance and take a step closer to postseason play.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Joe Ryan has used his non-fastballs 8.3% less often this year (37.3%) than he did last year (45.6%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Kody Clemens’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 90.8-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 80.5-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Minnesota Twins have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Edouard Julien, Carson McCusker, Byron Buxton).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Aaron Nola’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.3 mph this year (91.2 mph) below where it was last year (92.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Extreme flyball batters like Kyle Schwarber usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Joe Ryan.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.