Player Predictions Overview for Twins vs Cardinals – 3/29/2025

Minnesota Twins

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals host the Minnesota Twins at Busch Stadium on March 29, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations early in the season. The Cardinals enter this game with a record of 1-0, riding a wave of optimism, while the Twins are struggling at 0-1 after a disappointing start to their campaign. In their last matchup, the Cardinals edged out the Twins, showcasing their competitive edge.

The matchup pits Erick Fedde against Joe Ryan, and while both are right-handed pitchers, their rankings tell a different story. Fedde ranks 104th among the league’s starters according to advanced stats, placing him right at average. Conversely, Ryan stands impressively at 17th, marking him as one of the better pitchers in MLB. This disparity in pitching prowess could play a crucial role in determining the game’s outcome.

Fedde projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs, which is commendable. However, he is also expected to surrender 4.6 hits and 1.3 walks—numbers that could spell trouble against a lineup eager to bounce back. Ryan, on the other hand, projects to go 5.4 innings with similar earned run averages but a slightly better strikeout rate and fewer walks allowed, indicating possible effectiveness against a Cardinals lineup looking to maintain its momentum.

With the Game Total currently set at a low 7.5 runs, both teams need to hit their marks offensively. The Cardinals carry a low implied team total of 3.66 runs, reflecting cautious optimism from the betting markets, while the Twins boast a more favorable implied total of 3.84 runs. Given their recent performances and current standings, this clash promises to be tightly contested, with the potential for an intriguing interleague battle.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Joe Ryan is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #27 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jose Miranda – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Jose Miranda has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  In today’s game, Byron Buxton is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.9% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 19.8% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 37 games (+8.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 88 games (+15.20 Units / 16% ROI)