Player Predictions Overview for Rockies vs Yankees – 8/24/2024

Colorado Rockies

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on August 24, 2024, the stakes are clear for both teams. The Yankees, currently sitting at 76-53, are enjoying a remarkable season, while the Rockies, with a dismal 47-82 record, face ongoing struggles. This matchup is part of a series that already saw the Yankees secure a convincing 3-0 victory over the Rockies just yesterday.

On the mound, the Yankees are expected to send Will Warren to the hill. Warren, while ranked 182nd among MLB starters, has had a challenging season, reflected in his 0-1 record and an ERA of 8.59. However, he did pitch well in his last start, allowing just two earned runs over five innings. His projected performance today is average in terms of innings pitched but concerning in terms of earned runs and walks. On the other side, the Rockies will counter with Bradley Blalock, who has shown flashes of excellence with a 2.92 ERA, though he has struggled in terms of innings pitched and strikeouts.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB, highlighted by their impressive power with 149 home runs this season, ranking 2nd overall. Aaron Judge leads the charge, having recently demonstrated his prowess by hitting five home runs in the last week alone. Meanwhile, the Rockies rank 18th in offense, showing some potential but unable to match the Yankees’ firepower.

The projections favor the Yankees heavily, predicting they’ll score around 6.03 runs, while the Rockies are expected to manage only 4.21 runs. With their powerful lineup against a struggling Rockies pitching staff, the Yankees will look to capitalize and continue their winning ways against a team still searching for answers.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Bradley Blalock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Bradley Blalock has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in today’s game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Ryan McMahon has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 11.4% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-310)
  Over his last 3 GS, Will Warren has compiled a staggering ERA of 8.59.
  Explain: A pitcher who has struggled in his most recent outings may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alex Verdugo can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 7th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 62 of their last 105 games (+17.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+6.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+210/-285)
  Michael Toglia has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+9.00 Units / 20% ROI)