Player Predictions Overview for Padres vs Yankees – 5/05/2025

San Diego Padres

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees and San Diego Padres are set to clash on May 5, 2025, in what marks the first game of a promising interleague series at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, currently holding a record of 19-15, are looking to bounce back after a tough 7-5 loss against the Padres just a day earlier. Meanwhile, the Padres are boasting a strong 22-11 record, having secured a dominant 4-0 victory in their last game.

On the mound for the Yankees, Carlos Rodon, ranked 75th among starting pitchers, is projected to start. Rodon has shown flashes of brilliance this season, with a solid 3.43 ERA and a 4-3 record over 7 starts. However, his tendency to allow an average of 5.1 hits and 1.9 walks per game raises concerns. Facing Rodon will be Nick Pivetta, who has performed admirably for the Padres this season. With a 1.78 ERA and a 5-1 record, Pivetta is ranked 59th among starting pitchers and appears to be a significant threat, even though the projections indicate he may be due for some regression.

The Yankees’ offense is ranked 1st in MLB, excelling in batting average and home runs, while the Padres sit at 13th overall. New York’s powerful hitters, who have already hit 57 home runs this season, could exploit Pivetta’s high-flyball tendencies, especially given that he has a flyball rate of 43%. Conversely, Pivetta’s ability to limit walks may challenge the Yankees’ patient approach at the plate.

With a game total set at a modest 7.5 runs and the Yankees being favored at -150, bettors will be keen to see if New York’s top-ranked offense can capitalize against Pivetta and build momentum in the series.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Nick Pivetta’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (54.3 compared to 48.2% last year) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Tyler Wade – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Bats such as Tyler Wade with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Carlos Rodon who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Carlos Rodon’s 93.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.8-mph decline from last season’s 95.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Trent Grisham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Trent Grisham is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected batting order today (.333 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit worse than their .352 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games at home (+3.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+135)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Austin Wells has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 55% ROI)