Player Predictions Overview for Nationals vs Twins – 7/25/2025

Washington Nationals

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Washington Nationals on July 25, 2025, both teams come into the matchup looking to turn around disappointing seasons. The Twins sit at 49-53, while the Nationals are struggling even more at 41-61. With both teams out of contention for their respective divisions, this Interleague series opener holds significant implications for their future.

In their most recent outings, the Twins lost a close game to the Chicago White Sox, falling 4-3 on July 23, while the Nationals were shut out 5-0 by the San Diego Padres on July 20. The Twins will send Zebby Matthews to the mound, who, despite his struggles this season—boasting a 1-2 record and a troubling 6.26 ERA—ranks as the 49th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats. His projected performance today is concerning, as he averages only 4.9 innings pitched, allowing 2.3 earned runs and giving up 5.0 hits per game.

On the other hand, the Nationals will counter with MacKenzie Gore, who has a solid 3.59 ERA and ranks 48th among MLB starters. However, Gore’s recent performance was alarming, as he allowed 8 earned runs in just 2 innings during his last start. Both pitchers are high-strikeout, low-contact types, but Matthews may face challenges against a Nationals offense that ranks 4th in the fewest strikeouts in MLB.

The Twins’ offense, while average in home runs, ranks 22nd in batting average, and they will need their best hitter to continue his recent surge, having recorded 3 home runs and 6 RBIs in the last week. Meanwhile, the Nationals’ best hitter has been productive as well, with a strong OPS of 0.892.

With the Twins favored at -155, their implied team total of 4.66 runs suggests they are expected to score more than the Nationals, who are projected at an average of 3.84 runs. Given the struggles both teams have faced, this matchup offers an intriguing opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on potential value in the odds.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. MacKenzie Gore has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.5% more often this season (50.2%) than he did last year (44.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Over the last two weeks, Luis Garcia Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Zebby Matthews’s fastball velocity has increased 1 mph this season (95.9 mph) over where it was last year (94.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Carlos Correa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Carlos Correa has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 97.6-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  In today’s matchup, Royce Lewis is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.7% rate (82nd percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 32% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+11.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• Brady House – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Brady House has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 36% ROI)