Player Predictions Overview for Nationals vs Braves – 8/25/2024

Washington Nationals

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals prepare for their matchup on August 25, 2024, the Braves continue to solidify their standing in the National League East with a record of 70-59, while the Nationals sit at 58-72. The Braves recently took the series opener against Washington, winning 4-2 the day before, which highlighted their offensive capabilities and solid pitching.

Reynaldo Lopez is projected to take the mound for Atlanta. Ranked as the 66th best starting pitcher in MLB, his impressive 2.05 ERA indicates he has had a strong season, although his 3.72 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate thus far. Lopez’s last outing saw him dominate with 10 strikeouts over 5 innings, allowing just 1 earned run. With projections estimating he’ll allow only 2.3 earned runs today, he looks poised to repeat that success against a struggling Nationals lineup.

On the other hand, Washington will send DJ Herz to the hill. Although Herz has shown flashes of potential, his 4.15 ERA this season is above average, and he has a 2-6 record over 13 starts. The projections indicate that he might struggle today, with an expected average of 2.6 earned runs and a concerning 2.1 walks per game.

Overall, the Braves boast the 10th best bullpen in MLB, compared to the Nationals, who rank 28th. Given the Braves’ offensive depth—led by standout hitter Marcell Ozuna, who has blasted 37 home runs this season—and their strong starting pitching, they are favored to thrive in this matchup. THE BAT X projects the Braves to score an average of 5.39 runs, which reinforces their position as a significant favorite as they aim to extend their winning streak against the Nationals.

Washington Nationals Insights

• DJ Herz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)
  DJ Herz has averaged 14 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 6th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jose Tena – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Jose Tena has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (91% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  James Wood hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have 7 batters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Reynaldo Lopez in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  This season, Marcell Ozuna has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.6 mph compared to last year’s 96.5 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-195)
  The 5th-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 114 games (+31.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 away games (+9.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2200)
  Keibert Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+11.30 Units / 113% ROI)