Player Predictions Overview for Mariners vs Padres – 5/16/2025

Seattle Mariners

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San Diego Padres

On May 16, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Seattle Mariners at Petco Park in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Padres are riding high with a solid 27-15 record this season, while the Mariners sit at 23-19, both teams looking to solidify their standings as they head into the later part of the season. The Padres are coming off a convincing 5-1 victory over the Mariners on May 14, while the Mariners fell short in a close 3-2 game.

The matchup on the mound features Padres’ Stephen Kolek, who is having an impressive season with a flawless 0.00 ERA in two starts, although his 3.41 xFIP suggests he could be due for some regression. Kolek’s last outing was particularly notable; he pitched a complete game shutout, a remarkable feat that showcases his potential. In contrast, the Mariners will send Logan Evans to the hill, who has struggled with a 6.60 ERA and a 1-1 record in three starts. Evans’ projections indicate he may be in for a tough outing, especially against a Padres lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB in team batting average.

Offensively, the Padres have been productive, ranking 11th overall in MLB, but their power numbers are lagging as they sit 22nd in home runs. Meanwhile, the Mariners boast a powerful lineup, ranking 9th in home runs, which could pose a challenge for Kolek if he encounters trouble.

With the Padres’ strong bullpen ranked 4th in MLB and the Mariners’ bullpen at 20th, the Padres appear to have the edge in this matchup. The projections favor San Diego, suggesting they could capitalize on their home-field advantage and Kolek’s recent form to secure another win.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Evans – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-190)
  Logan Evans has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 10.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Jorge Polanco has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.9-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91.8-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Seattle Mariners bats as a group rank 4th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 10.6% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Stephen Kolek – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  The Seattle Mariners have 6 batters in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Stephen Kolek in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brandon Lockridge – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Typically, batters like Brandon Lockridge who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Logan Evans.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (+115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+12.10 Units / 58% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+7.75 Units / 28% ROI)