Player Predictions Overview for Mariners vs Angels – 7/14/2024

Seattle Mariners

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Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners will face off in an American League West showdown on July 14, 2024, at Angel Stadium. The Angels, despite winning the last game 2-1, have had a rough season with a 40-55 record, placing them well outside playoff contention. On the other hand, the Mariners boast a 52-45 record, positioning them as a solid team with playoff aspirations.

The Angels are projected to start Carson Fulmer, who has struggled this season with a 0-2 record and a 3.83 ERA. Despite his decent ERA, his advanced metrics suggest he has been fortunate, and his 4.55 xFIP indicates he might regress. Additionally, Fulmer’s projections for today don’t inspire confidence, as he is expected to pitch just 3.6 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs, 3.7 hits, and 1.5 walks on average.

On the mound for the Mariners is Logan Gilbert, who has been having an excellent season with a 6-5 record and a stellar 2.94 ERA. His 3.55 xFIP suggests some luck has been involved, but overall, Gilbert has been reliable. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, 5.6 hits, and 1.1 walks on average.

Offensively, the Angels have struggled, ranking 21st-best in MLB, while the Mariners are even worse, ranking 27th. However, the Mariners have shown more power, ranking 11th in home runs compared to the Angels’ 16th. In their last seven games, Julio Rodriguez has been on fire for the Mariners, hitting .632 with a 1.734 OPS, making him a key player to watch.

Despite the Angels being a +145 underdog with a 39% implied win probability, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a 45% chance of winning. This discrepancy suggests potential value in betting on the Angels today. With Fulmer’s struggles and Gilbert’s solid performances, this matchup leans in favor of Seattle, but the Angels’ recent win and favorable projections could lead to an interesting game.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-165)
  The Seattle Mariners outfield defense profiles as the best among all the teams in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Cal Raleigh has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.5-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 92.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Carson Fulmer – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Carson Fulmer to have a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 75 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Seattle’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Mickey Moniak, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Keston Hiura, Jo Adell, Mickey Moniak).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Run Line +1.5 (-115)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 29 games at home (+10.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 43% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-145/+110)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+10.20 Units / 18% ROI)