Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
(-110/-110)-160
As the San Diego Padres host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park on September 27, 2025, playoff implications loom large for the Padres, who currently hold an 88-72 record and are striving to secure their postseason position. In contrast, the Diamondbacks sit at a .500 record of 80-80, marking their season as average at best. In their last matchup, the Padres triumphed, continuing their solid performance as they fight for a Wild Card spot.
The Padres are projected to start right-hander Michael King, who ranks as the 44th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. King has had a good season, sporting a 5-3 record and a solid ERA of 3.57. However, his xFIP of 4.15 suggests he may be due for some regression. Nonetheless, he projects to pitch around 5.7 innings while allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs, striking out 5.6 batters, which aligns with an average outing.
On the other side, the Diamondbacks will counter with Eduardo Rodriguez, a left-handed pitcher with a less favorable 4.91 ERA and a below-average season overall. Rodriguez’s statistics paint a challenging picture, as he projects to allow 2.4 earned runs over approximately 5.5 innings, but his strikeout rate of 4.4 batters is noticeably lower than his counterpart’s.
Offensively, the Padres rank 16th in MLB, with their batting average of .250 being respectable but their power lacking, ranking 28th in home runs. The Diamondbacks, however, boast a 5th place ranking in overall offense, which includes a solid batting average of .260 and a 9th place ranking in home runs.
With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, the Padres, favored at -140, may have the edge, especially considering their potent bullpen, ranked 2nd best in MLB, compared to the Diamondbacks’ 22nd ranking. This matchup appears favorable for the Padres as they look to solidify their playoff aspirations against an average opponent.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Eduardo Rodriguez has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.4% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Geraldo Perdomo’s true offensive skill to be a .316, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .055 difference between that mark and his actual .371 wOBA.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Gabriel Moreno has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and will be challenged by the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Michael King – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Michael King’s fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this year (92 mph) below where it was last year (93 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Ryan O’Hearn has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (84% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The San Diego Padres (18.7 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy group of hitters of all teams on the slate today.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 80 of their last 142 games (+14.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 65 of their last 128 games (+14.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.80 Units / 44% ROI)