Player Predictions Overview for Athletics vs Red Sox – (7/10/2024

Oakland Athletics

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Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics are set for the second game of their series at Fenway Park on July 10, 2024. The Red Sox, sitting at 50-40 and having a solid season, have a distinct advantage over the Athletics, who are struggling with a 34-59 record. Boston is coming off a thrilling 12-9 victory against Oakland, where their offense shined. The Red Sox were heavy favorites with a closing Moneyline price of -210 and did not disappoint, as they lived up to their 65% implied win probability.

On the mound for Boston will be right-hander Nick Pivetta, who has been decent this season with a 4.06 ERA and an above-average 3.51 xFIP suggesting some bad luck. Pivetta is known for his high strikeout rate (28.1 K%) and will face an Athletics lineup that ranks 2nd in strikeouts, giving him a favorable matchup. Additionally, Pivetta’s recent form is impressive, having pitched 7 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts in his last start on July 4. His projected 5.3 innings and 2.6 earned runs today are average, but his strikeout potential stands out.

Meanwhile, Oakland will counter with lefty JP Sears, who has been mediocre with a 4.74 ERA. Sears is a low-strikeout pitcher (16.7 K%) facing a Boston lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts, which might play into his strengths. However, the projections indicate he may struggle, allowing 3.2 earned runs over 5.1 innings. Sears’ matchup against an 8th-ranked Red Sox offense in both overall performance and batting average is daunting. Boston also boasts the 9th most home runs in MLB, posing a significant threat.

Offensively, the Red Sox have been led by Rafael Devers over the past week, boasting a .391 average and 1.430 OPS with 3 home runs and 11 RBIs in six games. In contrast, Brent Rooker has been a bright spot for Oakland, hitting .550 with a 1.515 OPS over the same period.

Despite being underdogs with a Moneyline of +160, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests Oakland’s win probability is 42%, 5% higher than the betting market implies. This discrepancy suggests potential value in betting on the Athletics, despite their overall struggles. With high projected run totals for both teams, expect another high-scoring affair at Fenway Park.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+135/-180)
  Over his last 3 games started, JP Sears has seen a significant jump in his fastball spin rate: from 2110 rpm over the whole season to 2169 rpm in recent games.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme groundball batters like Brent Rooker tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Oakland’s 89.1-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in baseball: #8 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Because groundball pitchers have a sizeable edge over groundball bats, Nick Pivetta and his 37.9% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable spot today facing 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Tyler O’Neill has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 14.9% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Romy Gonzalez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Romy Gonzalez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+10.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 51 games (+7.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.15 Units / 36% ROI)