Player Predictions for Royals vs Astros – May 13, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Houston Astros

As the Kansas City Royals face off against the Houston Astros on May 13, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams, though the Astros are currently sitting at an average 20-20 record compared to the Royals’ impressive 25-18. This matchup is the second in a series that has already seen the Royals best the Astros, and both teams will be looking to gain momentum.

Framber Valdez is projected to take the mound for Houston, bringing with him a 2-4 record and a solid ERA of 3.94. Valdez has been known for his high groundball rate (55% this year), which could play to his advantage against a Royals offense that has struggled with power, ranking dead last in MLB with just 28 home runs this season. However, Valdez’s projections suggest he may allow an average of 2.4 earned runs while giving up 5.6 hits and 1.9 walks, which could be concerning.

On the other hand, Kris Bubic is slated to start for Kansas City. With a 4-2 record and an outstanding ERA of 1.69, Bubic has been a reliable arm for the Royals. His projections indicate he might pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs, suggesting he will keep the game competitive. Despite his respectable performance, the projections hint that Bubic may have been a bit lucky, as his xFIP of 3.52 is significantly higher than his ERA.

Offensively, the Astros rank 14th in MLB, while the Royals sit at 26th, making this an intriguing matchup. Houston’s lineup has struggled with power, ranking 25th in home runs and stolen bases, but they have a slight edge in batting average. The game total is set low at 7.5 runs, reflecting the potential for a tightly contested battle. With Houston favored at -140, they may look to capitalize on their home field advantage to even the series.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kris Bubic – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-175/+135)
  Kris Bubic’s 91.5-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 19th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Kyle Isbel’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 88.1-mph figure last year has lowered to 84.7-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Given that flyball batters have a significant advantage over groundball pitchers, Framber Valdez and his 57.9% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard spot in today’s outing being matched up with 2 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Brendan Rodgers usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Kris Bubic.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ranking 4th-highest in MLB this year, Houston Astros bats jointly have put up a 17° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (an advanced metric to assess power ability).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 31 games (+9.92 Units / 26% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.70 Units / 40% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3000)
  Maikel Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 away games (+7.50 Units / 188% ROI)