Player Predictions for Rangers vs Red Sox – August 13, 2024

Texas Rangers

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Texas Rangers on August 13, 2024, both teams are coming off a tightly contested matchup yesterday, where the Red Sox edged out the Rangers 5-4. This game marks the second in a series that could impact the standings as the race for a Wild Card spot heats up in the American League. Currently, the Red Sox sit at a respectable 62-55, while the Rangers languish at 55-64, struggling to find their footing this season.

On the mound, the Red Sox will feature Kutter Crawford, who has had an up-and-down season but remains above average, ranking as the 68th best starting pitcher in MLB. Although he recently had a rough outing where he allowed six earned runs over four innings, Crawford is projected to pitch five innings today, allowing 2.7 earned runs on average, which is below average. Contrastingly, the Rangers will send out Jose Urena, who has been struggling mightily and ranks as one of the worst pitchers in MLB. Urena projects to allow 3.3 earned runs over five innings, and his high walk rate could be problematic against a potent Boston offense.

The Red Sox offense is one of the best in baseball, ranked 4th overall, and boasts a deep lineup led by Rafael Devers, who has been a standout performer this season. Meanwhile, the Rangers sit at 25th in offensive rankings, and while Corey Seager has been a bright spot, he faces a tough challenge against Crawford today.

Interestingly, the projections indicate a close game, with the Red Sox having a higher implied total of 5.36 runs compared to the Rangers’ 4.64. This disparity highlights the difference in performance levels and suggests that the Red Sox are favored not just to win but to do so convincingly. As both teams look to solidify their positions in this series, the outcome could hinge on which side’s strengths—the Red Sox’s elite offense or the Rangers’ struggling lineup—prevail.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jose Urena – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  The Boston Red Sox have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Urena in this game, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Typically, bats like Marcus Semien who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Kutter Crawford.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Kutter Crawford – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Kutter Crawford’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2549 rpm) has been significantly higher than than his seasonal rate (2498 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Masataka Yoshida – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+170/-225)
  Masataka Yoshida is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Boston Red Sox today owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .312, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .330 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 70 games (+17.60 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 23 away games (+10.60 Units / 42% ROI)
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-140)
  Wyatt Langford has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+13.75 Units / 41% ROI)